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Monthly Digest | September 2021

Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in September 2021. Let's explore the pages of September 2021's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.

September 02 2021

September 03 2021

September 04 2021

I won’t be exiting any uranium positions until the trend changes.

Best country index this week was Japan. Holding. This is what we want to see to support our thesis

September 06 2021

My goal for this week is to write a rule list.

September 07 2021

September 09 2021

New video. I hope this helps people understand what a methodology means.

September 14 2021

Consider what Stan Druckenmiller has to say on the topic:

“... when I went over to work for George [Soros]... to my really big surprise, I was as proficient as he was, maybe more so, in predicting trends.”.

While this may not seem substantial, to provide some context, in a recent interview with Kiril Sokoloff on R ealVision, Druckenmiller said:

“I’ve just never had the trust in my own analytical ability to go in an illiquid market...”.

While slightly lacking context for brevity, the point is Druckenmiller would only bet big in the deepest most liquid markets so he could always get out because he didn’t have enough faith in his predictive analytical abilities to trade big in illiquid markets. To Druckenmiller, the stock market didn’t count as liquid because it wasn’t trading 24 hours day. So, if Druckenmiller doesn’t have much faith in his own predictive analytical abilities and thinks he is at least as good as and likely more proficient than Soros, he can’t have a lot of faith in Soros’s predictive abilities.

Colm O’Shea further supports the view that Soros doesn’t know the future in Hedge Fund Market Wizards:.


“Even though [Soros] will sometimes play up to his public image as a guru who knows what is going on, it is in no sense what he does as a money manager... He doesn’t let his structural views on how he believes the market will play out get in the way of his trading.”.

And Soros confirms these views:

“My financial success stands in stark contrast with my ability to forecast events... in predicting financial markets, my record is less than impressive.”

Some say Soros can move markets, that his capital base and presence allow him to dictate where prices go. But he quickly dispels this contention in Soros on Soros:

“... my influence [on markets] is largely illusory. A market move may become associated with my name, as happened once with gold. But if we try to move against the market, we get trampled on. That happened to us more than once...”.

Finally, some say Soros may be/thinks he is God which would account for his performance. However, in a 60 Minutes interview, he said:

“If you think that you’re God, and you go into financial markets, you are bound to come out broke. So, the fact that I am not broke, shows that I don’t believe that I am God.”

So, let’s recap. Soros loses at least half the time and probably more, he is not a great analyst (and probably not even a good analyst really), he is bad at predicting the future, he cannot singularly move markets, and he is not God. This flies in the face of most of what you pick up from the media. Perhaps more importantly this begs the question, what is he good at?

In Soros on Soros, Soros said:

“... I do have a very strong critical faculty. I am not a professional security analyst. I would rather call myself an insecurity analyst... I recognize that I may be wrong. This makes me insecure. My sense of insecurity keeps me alert, always ready to correct my errors.”.

Been reading and taking some notes on it this week. I’ll post as I come past things.

September 15 2021

For those who are following the Nat gas trade (weekly chart).

We had an option trade awhile back on AMD. Cup and handle pattern breaking out. Why it is important is that most people won’t buy it. “It’s too high” “I lost money on the last trade” and so on…

The main point is, you don’t know where your biggest winners will come from. Take the signals. Don’t over think it.

September 16 2021

According to Soros, again in The New Paradigm for Financial Markets, the Boom/Bust sequence has eight stages:

  1. The trend is not yet recognized.

  2. The period of acceleration when the trend is recognized and reinforced by prevailing bias.

  3. A period of testing where prices suffer a setback.

  4. If the bias and trend survive the test in step 3, both emerge stronger.

  5. A “moment of truth” comes where reality can no longer sustain the exaggerated expectations created by step 4.

  6. A twilight period sets in where people keep playing even though they no longer believe.

  7. A crossover point is reached where the trend shifts down and bias goes with it.

  8. Catastrophic downward acceleration commonly known as a crash.

Longtime Soros associate, Byron Wien, succinctly summarized the boom/bust theory:

“His [Soros’s] idea is that things do very well and then they do badly. You should know that while they’re doing well they’re about to do badly and, to oversimplify his theory, the important thing is to recognize the inevitability of a trend change, the key point is the identification of the inflection point.”.

This dip in the market is buyable here

September 22 2021

September 24 2021

September 26 2021

September 27 2021

September 28 2021

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