Monthly Digest | November 2020

Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in November 2020. Let's explore the pages of November 2020's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.

01 November 2020

KRE... strong on friday. How weird. 200 day turned in to support. holding bullish on CCI

One of these things are not like the other...

blue shade lines september to the end of november election years. White line TLT:SPY

Gold to SPX white.

silver to gold ratio

Usuaully upside break outs in volatility lead to big moves in gold and silver. The rest of the signals are weak though.

one more chart on strength. I forgot this one earlier.

frustrating.

miner breadth

EEM only down 3%

fucking yen... If we actually break that 104 level. We are going to crash hard. Set a buy stop that could be a huge trade.

the jan lumber contract does not look like this. So I am assuming I have another day or two before I get filled if this keeps moving my direction.

natty, buy the break out if you're aggressive. Buy the pull back if not.

cocoa we talked about this last weekend. Buying the pull back. We had some negative fundamentals come out that led to some commercial selling. But they will be buying at these prices. We are looking for that cat system trigger. Meaning. we broke support now we want to see it close above it and buy that break out.

Good breath chart by trend investor pro.

Like I’ve said all week. Value patience here. Sell volatility on the spikes. Dry powder after the the election is key.

even though we are at resistance. buying hasnt stopped

The shorter term time frames are not as important. But it is worth a look. 13000 looks to be building support. At the moment my stop is just below that.

That could be in a text book.

had this same bottom set up in BTC a couple months ago.

Overall thought on this week. Caution. Dry powder is king. Lets look for a turn around tuesday and possibly buying this dip but ONLY after we see strength.

take it for what its worth with the election and lock downs. The end of this month is what we are looking for. November 1st and second have over 80% win rates in the last 20 years as november buying is very common. But Id be cautious

The big trade this week

02 November 2020

Dollar turning down from an overbought zone. Once again the big trade is after the election. So I am not in a hurry to act right here.

Gap out of fridays low is confirming the triangle pattern

As we talked about in the video. 1st trading days of the month are very bullish

I will bring it up one more time. The elction has brought a major trading opportunity this week. I will not be sleeping much this week but I think we are going to have a major opportunity. Check out the last audio I put up yesterday afternoon.

NEM they woke up the sleeping giant

The VIX spiked up to 40 last week, a level that has tended to carry some significance. While a rising VIX environment tends to coincide with poor N-T performance, striking such an elevated level can suggest a medium-term turn.

Going back to 1990, looking at the 11 other instances in which the VIX rose to 40 you will find that performance following these readings tended to be strongly positive. 3-month performance cleared 500bps, while 12-month performance broke +25% more than half of the time. In addition, the only instances with negative performance were before recessions, which probably isn’t where we are now.

December 03 2020

I think the small caps and the banks are about to outperform tech till year end. Let’s get ready for some awesome trading in to the end of this year.

GDX is in a major value zone today.

Option premiums are going to swell like a mother fucker today don’t sell options to early is the number one rule this week. We want to sell options when the unwind happens. Right now there are premiums all the way to a 20% crash in the spx. People are looking for a black Wednesday. When everyone is looking for it we must think... maybe not. Shorting the vix and selling options on ES will be my main weapons for this.

Do your best not to FOMO today. Keep your power dry and remember a big trade is in front of us. There is usually a shake out on election night. What I’d expect is some move down. But then we see a lot of short covering

This bounce is what we want to take advantage of - The positions I have on are in the commodity space. All small. The biggest position is Im short the 30 year bond.

Looking for a break down or a pull back in to this zone today. Ill be watching my vix model for timing

watching vvix and VXAPL will be crucial today.

Traders always fight the last battle. Looking for this quick election dip. With the positioning we could see a massive overnight move again. However. Why I’m waiting and watching is because.... NO ONE KNOWS WHAT SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT.

Great book John Netto being my favorite.

Any vix pops at this point on could probably be sold. I am going to stop out at the highs

Some unwinding of the short today. One way or another. dry powder is the move. Bit of a pop in vol in to the close. At the moment I am looking at being a seller of volatility. We wont see the real move in vol until the middle of the night

Rejected twice from the feb high.

04 November 2020

Market was fishing for stops hard overnight. That’s what the big guys do on emotional nights

That’s ok

As soon as this gets moving everything will go the other direction. I’m up and ready to start hunting premium. The better the cash amount the better... since they cut margin to shit

Great idea but I gave myself a D on execution. Had to get back in this morning after the overnight traders fished for my stops. Wasn’t expecting that range to be so wide. Luckily the idea here is that we trend higher to the end of the year. Stimulus trades like long copper and lumber. Short bonds should continue to work.

But equities should break out of the triangle and move 10% this month

I put money that the second the prez is elected vaccine news comes out. Which is why biotechs are rallying like we cured cancer.

05 November 2020

Silver break out buy signal this morning. Things are going to start happening fast.

These are my favorite patterns. BTC made the same pattern

Very rarely wll you see a 4 std move from the outside of a bband to the top of a Bband. In two days

While maintaining a down trend. Looking to enter ZB short again soon. Want to see rejection here.

SPY structure

EEM is leading the market right here. Usually when it leads. The market follows

All hail the king

That sexy bitch.

The market has a way of trending the same way over and over again. The triangles are periods of terrible returns. After and before are superior returns. If we can get out of this chop I think we will run in to a couple months of great returns which will balance out the months of chop

This is very normal and happens over and over again like clock work

I get it and I know that looks fucking crazy and things cant be that simple but it is one truth that I know about the market. It does not mean trading it is easy. With everything becomeing so correlated. All returns hit the same dead spot this year. Now... we might get out of this.

Coffee. 3 pushes to a low. Broke the down trend line. Seasonals and fundamentalists are bullish

06 November 2020

Gold master chart. We always have to respect range expansion. The bottom indicator is band width. Moves usually are ready to start when we are in a squeeze.

The first time it starts moving up is a good sign of a new trend.

oil - I always say failed moves can lead to fast moves. If you look at this you can see that we had a break down. But it had no follow through. Then bounced. Had a massive rally now we pulled back to support. If we bounce here we could see oil start to move with this market.

SPX structure for the day. Resistance right where we should see it.

ZB bonds. rejection from that rare set up.

XME. Thats a set up

Vix dropping hard while the market is flat. Looks like the market could run higher.

Everyone always says. That lumber trade is perfect. I could have sat in that. Or I’m going to jump in

But it’s so thinly traded that it has these massive intraday shocks. That’s down 5000 per contract in 5 minutes

What do you do at that point?

07 November 2020

If a correction is going to happen it btc it would happen here and now. Long term I’m just holding...

Short term the correction should be to the 13000-13500 zone. I will cation that when bitcoin gets on a run and I have no sell signals. I don’t try to trade in and out of it

Similar to silver. Lumber. Copper

I am running a 30% stop for this run. 15k was the first target. If we consolidate here we could move a lot higher. I’ll go over this, this weekend

08 November 2020

If you want to learn about band squeezes - https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=trading_strategies:bollinger_band_squeeze

1 Rare in the world of a 20-40 vix but it looks like we have a call option trade. XBI

XBI weekly

BTCUSD weekly

BTC daily a look at the bitcoin signal. Full buy signal still

Old BTCUSD system still in a buy signal

LB_F lumber

Natty gas the most volatile asset in the land

natty Aug 2021 futures

Class 3 milk futures

coffee had a demark sequential buy signal last week. These are big contracts that can have major moves fast which is why it’s always on my radar long and short. Seasonality is bullish for coffee as well right now. As of now I am long.

Japan the strongest weekly close ever in the last 30 years.

 Failed move lead to fast moves but I wouldn’t touch Europe with a 28474737637363 foot pole.

 it’s easy to see this move... long China. Short Europe

Breadth data

Common stock up down volume.

 NDX AD volume

 PMO model in full buy signal

NYA swing buy signal

EEM/INDU

Dow/small caps

Dow/transports.

Breadth data all points to more upside in the 1-4 week timeframe. Gold/silver/miners

gold volatility signal gave us a buy signal before the break out. Check back to last sundays weekend review.

Silver

Gold/Silver/gold miners... Charts say they have more upside ahead.

 In the last 7 years silver has not performed well in novemember. The charts are saying the opposite right now. However we run in to some great seasonality for gold and silver in december and Jan.

09 November 2020

Bitcoin fear and greed index is really high. Does not mean sell but it does mean that short term traders should be open to a pull back.

Have I ever mentioned that an election being over is incredibly bullish.

I’ve been saying that the relative strength in small caps has looked like it was ready to leave the nasdaq (down earlier this morning) in the dust. Banks outperforming... get ready for the next leg of the cycle.

XOM we have slowly been legging in to energy. This could be the start of a new trend. Most trades are working in our favor this morning after a lot of chop last month. The ones that are not is gold and silver which have backtested the break out gaps. The safety trades have changed.

JPY CHF gold silver all down...

Bitcoin as well. Because they fixed all the debt problems with the vaccine...

LOL. Patience is needed here.

Either that is the best gap and crap ever. Or the best gap out of a triangle ever...

The close is important. As well as tomorrow. A strong close will tell us that there is a lot of buyers left.

A weak close will tell us the opposite.

Opened gold bull put spread here. The price of the end of week gold options jumped by 2000% this morning...

Yes there is some premium to sell... lol

Catching falling Knifes is a losers game but my short term signals point to a bounce in gold and silver right now.

"If the gold bet works, the Bitcoin (BTC-USD) bet will work better," says hedge funder Stan Druckenmiller in a CNBC appearance. Bitcoin, he says, has plenty of attraction as an asset class and store of value to not just millennials, but West Coast tech-types. It's been around 13 years and picks up more branding value each day, he notes.

He adds that has far more of his money in gold than he does in the most popular of cryptocurrencies.

Druckenmiller joins Paul Tudor Jones, Jack Dorsey, Michael Saylor, among others in putting a portion of their vast wealth in Bitcoin.

Druckenmiller is the best trader of all time. What they left out is that he was against bitcoin for years. This is a major switch.

Broad market is giving rejection signals today. This could be the time that we see a pull back.

10 November 2020

Dollar is in the oversold zone but no buy signal yet

Nasdaq vol model. No real warnings yet but we did get a bounce in vol today

Small caps volatility.

No breadth thrust today

SPX weekly.

If you have been in this room for awhile you already know what I am going to say. POSSIBLE 2B sell signal creeping up here. This is when you get a move to the upside that gets rejected.

If tomorrow opens gap down I'll look for trades on the other side of the market and shed my longs. A move to all time highs without follow thorugh is pretty meaningless.

No signal yet. We will look at it tomorrow.

Most importantly. We want to see the triangle hold to stay in bullish trend. What I think will happen... (which does not matter but let’s speculate) tech will join the party I’m the next couple days which will lead to a strong rally. I don’t think the market can rally for long without tech gaining some ground here. That does not mean that tech has to lead.

Currencies I like here are the CAD, AUD, NZD, CHF, MXN... in no particular order. Holding 4 at the moment

Tech did an open range reversal this morning. Apple is strong. This could be a point where tech attempts to join the rally.

Swissy looks poised for a move up here

Structure. SPY is holding the top of the triangle at the moment and it bounced after it hit it.

OBV is in a down trend. Which is not that uncommon if we are just consolidating here for a move higher.

In case you missed my seasonality study last month. In the last 7 years november has been a winner

In the last 30 years the win rate is till over 75%. Seasonality is not something to blindly place trades with. It is something to gain confidence in an idea. Bull put spread in BABA 2 week ex. Slightly OTM

Breadth indicators. Very strong

The breadth thrust signals wont update until tonight but I think we got a Zweig breadth thrust today. Copper had a range reversal today

Lumber.... Raging

Oil still stong. The weakest sectors are showing strength.

So far I dont see anything bearish about this market besides the fact that tech has been overdone for 4423423423 years and its taking a breath.

11 November 2020

I was thinking about the bond cycle tonight. How crazy it was to post this back then and the fact that I did not even really believe it. There are really interesting patterns in nature that we do not understand. Bond yields have moved up ever since and it reminds me of the inflation deflation argument...

Gold goes up.

breaks out

Hits 2k

People still laugh at me about talking about inflation... Gold was 1200 in 2018

March 9th the 30 year bond has never been lower since

Wheat prices at a 5 year high

Soybeans...

The point in this is, that our ego keeps us from making money. I'm short bonds. Everyone who knows that says that the fed will blank and blank and blank and my positions will get destroyed. As traders we really have to turn off the noise around us and really tap in to what we know to be true.

At the same time we have to be able to have a strong opinion that we are willing to walk away from

Always knowing that we will be wrong more than we will be right.

EIA forecasts for oil should be down across the board. Very bullish for oil if my forecast is accurate.

OPEC: “Chinese Crude Imports in September At 11.8 Mln B/D, Third Highest on Record After June, July”

And boom goes the dynamite. News is always a lagging indicator. The price of oil is up from 35 to 43 in a week...

We thought the NAZ could bottom yesterday. It is involved with the rally today

Coffee. 3 pushes to a low or an W bottom is a good way of finding actual bottoming patterns. I like 3 pushes to a low while creating divergence on your indicator of choice

Short term overbought signal on the dollar

Small caps havent been a leader in so long that people forgot that it could lead the pack

Bitcoin hourly. Very close to another leg higher

Could be a good place to take profits on oil here. Overbought signal and reversing hard after this morning

12 November 2020

Need a strong day tomorrow for a zweig breadth thrust.

July 22 and mid March gold was in backwardation. Gold is in backwardation again right now

Spy structure. Still holding the line today

Risk on sectors are strong today

BTC took the break out and we are sitting at 16k now

SPY intraday oversold. Could move higher in to the close

Time to start taking down some exposure here on the long side for me. Vix signaled a warning

Still all the same positions. Just smaller.

13 November 2020

Hopefully we can end this week at a new high in AD breadth

Strong Friday’s can lead to a strong Monday

For you uranium guys. I usually buy the individual stocks CCJ UUUU NXE. I wasn’t s fan of the ETF URA. URNM is a much better ETF. If you’re looking for broad exposure

Equal weight SPX on the bottom

RSP equal weight

SPY market cap weighted

Tech is the biggest component of the nasdaq. I wanted to explain this because I have been talking about this fact lately. It is important because it has allowed tech to carry the entire market since march.

NYSE advance decline volume. First time we have ended the week at a new high in quite some time

This keeps getting shared. TOO BULLISH. CRASH INCOMING

Lets really look at this

I have never found much of an edge using AAII bulls

SPX SPY all time closing high today

close

14 November 2020

It’s interesting to see that the COVID number cycle lines up with the timeline for the 3 waves in the Spanish flu. Which would mean that our numbers peak this month.

16 November 2020

17 November 2020

Fucking morons 😂

18 November 2020

Coffee and cocoa. Movers and shakers

The reason why the bank shorts were closed. It’s apparent now

19 November 2020

The sentiment on Twitter is always fun to scroll through

I woke up this morning to “deflation is here” “hard sell off” “market dump” commodity bull is over”. So I thought I’d wake up to the SPX down at least 1%. After a 10% move that would just be normal... right

Markets in turmoil lol

That’s a lot of corn

Markets in turmoil!

#isthislimitdown

Baba is a buy here.

Big news - Take charge of price risks associated with manufacturing lithium-ion batteries

20 November 2020

ZB 30 year bonds just gave an overbought sell signal. This signal has been on fire lately

Something to keep in mind. Nat gas is going completely against seasonality right now

Sometimes when this happens it’s like a beach ball being held under water. The second enough shorts get interested and commercials start buying

It explodes.

Zinc

21 November 2020

At this point with all the bearish gold talk and gold volatility crashing. We are very close to a sentiment wash out point. That’s when everyone is short and the pain trade would be to the upside. I talked about gold having a flat November. That’s always possible based on seasonality. But now it’s hated

This is when I get very interested. 5% downside at most

Either way more upside than downside.

Sentiment in bitcoin is extreme here

For those of you who ask what I mean by calculating standard deviations or implied moves. This guy nails it - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1329754193536581633.html

Exchanges are drying up

YTD

• Lumber 47%

• Silver 36%

• Soybeans 28%

• OJ 27%

• Gold 22%

• Palladium 21%

• Natural Gas 21%

• Copper 17%

• Sugar 13%

• Corn 11%

• S&P 500 10%

This week we will focus on gold, silver as well as the holiday trade in stocks

22 November 2020

AMZN. Very rarely do we ever see interesting set ups in AMZN but when we do. It tends to move

Two inside weeks

BTC weekly

BTC daily

BTC 90 min

Bitcoin intermarket analysis. Sometimes she leads

Oil signal

dollar chart. Bounce signal is here but we are in the red zone

23 November 2020

heating oil

from the strongest to the weakest RBOB

fugly, right to expiration... again.

 silver to gold ratio

 copper to gold ratio

GDXJ to GDX

gold volatility

Sun spots on bottom

On the way up we see a rise in weather volatility

Japan

How quickly we forget 26

A treade for this week. Wheat

Look for a break out in wheat to the upside. tight consolidation after a major run. If this moves any higher its a band squeeze break out.

Buy over 607.5

I’m still leaning on the reflation trade and the models are still backing that up. That is an impressive number against all the other developed economies.

That energy rally...

OIH almost up 10%. Defense stocks could be next.

24 November 2020

I have not talked about buying options lately. But silver is in such a tight coil

I wouldnt buy calls today but a trigger could happen soon

Oil physical market is tightening, moving into backwardartion in the front. Very high Chinese demand

Is the move in gold last year similar to the move this year? We are in the oversold stage. We are in a flag. Also, it is the end of the November when we bottomed last year and we topped in August. With the divergence in silver and platinum we could see a bottom soon.

Remember, commodities cycle. We wont always see gold outperform or oil or ag. They will cycle and move.

I like to think of the cycles as I see my girls mother. Evil incarnate. This woman is straight up evil. I swear I’ve seen her head spin around before. One day she out of nowhere started screaming “fuck you, fuck you, fuck you” and to this day I’m not sure who she was talking to. Probably Satan

But that’s how I think of buying dips for cycle turns

I don’t dine on swine buy it is a buy here

Tech...

Ok we are 5% down from where I said that we could fall 5%. Major gamma wall on gold here

I’m going to start accumulating long positions here.

Worst case scenario it’s another...

Wheat signal today

25 November 2020

Maybe I’m too bullish on the metals here lol

He thinks so lol

Seasonal outlook for the past 5 years

All jokes aside I’m very bullish on silver and gold right here. Silver more than gold

All targets are hit. The only thing to get in the way of it is yields

Position sizing is the most important part about trading. The one thing we know out of the gate

YOU WILL LOSE

So you want to set yourself up so the loses don’t kill you and the wins more than pay for your loses. If your average loss is 1000 and your average win is 1000. I can tell you right now that you probably won’t be profitable overtime. But I’d your average win is 2000 and your average loss is 1000. You can lose many, many times and still make money. The really great traders have a 50-60% win rate. I know tons of guys who win 30% of the time and they make good returns

This lesson is more important than anything I could teach you.

26 November 2020

Interesting, from macro charts

I’m not one for closing out an uptrend. But this feels very similar to other trades I’ve done over time. Bitcoin looks like it’s going to come down or consolidate. Gold looks like it’s ready to move higher

Value for value trades are the hardest.

The one thing I will say is that. That trade wasn’t as easy as it looked. It was 8 months before gold bottomed

Gold fell 10%

Bitcoin fell 80%

Sometimes outperformance on the way down is valuable.

Palladium

Stop was hit last night on BTC. At the 10 EMA. Sky blue line

That was the longest run without getting below the 10 EMA that I’ve ever seen. Trailing stops... they work

Rule number 253342. Protect your ass

Energy stocks. You get your biggest overbought readings at the beginning of a move

Bitcoin still in a very bullish trend. Anyone that has traded btc for awhile knows a few things. Corrections are always big. Because... the moves are big. Volatility.

Corrections tend to happen on holidays or weekends. Lots of whales in a small market. Means that only a few people can move the market. If this happened during the week I would say that this was probably the top.

What we need to see now is follow through. We do not have any full sell signals yet.

At the moment I would say that this pull back will be short lived. But if we try to take out 20k again and fail. I would take that as a sell signal

 breadth indicators still very bullish. I feel like a perma bull but damn.

spx up down volume still bullish

 Look at this one closely. I have been talking about this since the october. Small caps. The underperformer becomes the outperformer.

NYSE the broadest index hit all time highs for the first time since the crash

Also new highs are very strong.

Just to update in the update. No full sell signals. Trading wise I got stopped but I added a 1/2 position today. The first dip in a major move usually gets bought up. Similar to the first rally in a break down should be sold.

Market internals. FDX starting a new move

OIH We bought it as it crossed the 200 day last week

X sat around for awhile but now.. we are moving

In my opinion XME has been a much better way of playing the metals and mining sector.

regional banks. Blast off

Yes tech has been looking weak but semis are still HOT.

27 November 2020

Double checking macro charts info.

I beat this point to death but you’re going to get it again

Report of Jackson shutting down the second bank of the US.

Andrew Jackson and the Second Bank of the United States

Once again the nation was plunged into debt, unemployment, and poverty by the predations of the private central bank, and in 1832 Andrew Jackson successfully campaigned for his second term as President under the slogan, "Jackson and no bank!" True to his word, Jackson succeeded in blocking the renewal of the charter for the Second Bank of the United States.

"Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out!"

-- Andrew Jackson, shortly before ending the charter of the Second Bank of the United States. From the original minutes of the Philadelphia committee of citizens sent to meet with President Jackson (February 1834), according to Andrew Jackson and the Bank of the United States (1928) by Stan V. Henkels

"If this mischievous financial policy, which has its origin in North America, shall become endurated down to a fixture, then that Government will furnish its own money without cost. It will pay off debts and be without debt. It will have all the money necessary to carry on its commerce. It will become prosperous without precedent in the history of the world. The brains, and wealth of all countries will go to North America. That country must be destroyed or it will destroy every monarchy on the globe."

-- The London Times responding to Lincoln's decision to issue government Greenbacks to finance the Civil War, rather than agree to private banker's loans at 30% interest.

"Whoever controls the volume of money in our country is absolute master of all industry and commerce, and when you realize that the entire system is very easily controlled, one way or another, by a few powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate."

-- President James A. Garfield, two weeks before he was assassinated

Most people don’t know this part of history but before the federal reserve the same program was called the Aldrich plan. These drawings show what the public thought about it at that time.

“This Act (the Federal Reserve Act, Dec. 23rd 1913) establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President signs this bill, the invisible government by the Monetary Power will be legalized. The people may not know it immediately, but the day of reckoning is only a few years removed. The trusts will soon realize that they have gone too far even for their own good. The people must make a declaration of independence to relieve themselves from the Monetary Power. This they will be able to do by taking control of Congress. Wall Streeters could not cheat us if you Senators and Representatives did not make a humbug of Congress... The greatest crime of Congress is its currency system. The worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking bill. The caucus and the party bosses have again operated and prevented the people from getting the benefit of their own government.”

Iraq, already hostile to the United States following Desert Storm, demanded the right to sell their oil for Euros in 2000 and in 2002, the United Nations agreed to allow it under the "Oil for food" program instituted following Desert Storm. One year later the United States re-invaded Iraq under the lie of Saddam's nuclear weapons, lynched Saddam Hussein, and placed Iraq's oil back on the world market only for US dollars.

Iraq, already hostile to the United States following Desert Storm, demanded the right to sell their oil for Euros in 2000 and in 2002, the United Nations agreed to allow it under the "Oil for food" program instituted following Desert Storm. One year later the United States re-invaded Iraq under the lie of Saddam's nuclear weapons, lynched Saddam Hussein, and placed Iraq's oil back on the world market only for US dollars.

Old notes from the past. I’ll go over it more in my voice note

Let’s talk about the broad stock market looking forward past bad news and how the election cycle is playing out to perfection... so far.

Oh and I need to pitch you guys my Black Friday forex signals deal. Out signals have 99% winners. Yes that’s right. Have you heard about Warren Buffett. George Soros.

AINT SHIT

Only 9283736362 dollars now to make -273735262

Get this deal now while it lasts. Is anyone else getting blown up with these things in your inbox today?

Gold again

Silver, the last 5 years

Silver 49 years

Silver miners green. Gold white.

Vix model

structure

Equity put call. In the zone for a pull back in the broad market

28 November 2020

“Stocks could see a minor top any time. But this chart says we are not at THE TOP (yet). VIX futures started in 2004, but not a real player until 2012. Since 2012, all of the important price tops have arrived with VIX futures open interest at a high level. We don't have that now.”

The rest of the charts will be how to trade gold right now and what we should look for to buy a full position in gold, gdx and silver.

I am still looking at buying a few names here. Most of the ones Kashyap has brought up to us. KL being his main pick

AEM being another major that I am a fan of. Then the silver miners look amazing. We have talked about copper being a major winner. Small caps being a major winner and real growth and reflation is not a great story for gold. Also we talked about the seasonality for gold this month being poor. There is no stronger seasonal pattern than the winter rally. Long term I still have full conviction as a long term investor in gold and silver.

But it could be rocky in the short term

Also as you can see I am going more in depth as I’m revamping my own trading thesis.

We have had a phenomenal month here. Stocks, bonds, energy, commodities, small caps, biotech, bitcoin.... all were very solid trades but as traders we always have to keep our emotions under control and know that reality can smack you in the face.

So once a month I like to really prove for holes in my strategy. Look at what I might be missing. This is why we will go over 50-65 slides in the weekend note.

Over everything I try to show you my real process here. No bullshit. My wins, loses. Good times, bad times. When I’m stuck in a draw down. Even when I have too much pressure and need to take a break. I share all this because it’s what I wish I knew when I started.

29 November 2020

Gold monthly. Now that we are looking for this to turn. Lets look for an entrty. 10 EMA has historically been good support on bull trends.

Trend still up on both long term charts. Very oversold.

When to enter for a swing.

Silver, when to enter

NGD ready to enter

 NGD weekly

FSM weekly

Top pick. Top hold TGCDF. Last April/May I gave some gold mining picks to buy. Now that we are going in to a seasonally bullish trend. I am giving new picks for another leg up. My stop on most of these is 15%. After they get moving I will move the stop to 25%

Cotton. Very rarely will all my currency and commodity signals go long... I can say for sure that I’ve never had this many currency and commodity longs on in my life.

And last but not least. The big picture.

Ok I’m going to put some audio to this today from my spread sheets

30 November 2020

Platinum. Good example of buying the strongest one in the pack

Today I want to answer a question - Why I use moving averages or MAs to enter positions.

When I talk about examples it’s mainly for myself. I do a lot of stupid shit as well

Now we are at the top again. This is an important zone.

PTON looks like an easy trade this morning

By the way, Coffee looks like the best trade of december. Easily. Its very volatile. But it is set up fundamentally.

Key coffee area stuck in drought

We have lack of supply in 3 key coffee growing areas. This would target the price of 1.50 for a fundamental target

Health index falling hard. Mainly for everyone who does not follow ag...

Rain will be below normal. Conditions favorable for higher coffee prices.

I forgot to update the biotech trade, from Oct. Still smooth. Nothing to do.

Nothing spooks me more than rejection from new highs

Heading in to a global cooling cycle. Very long term cycles

When jupiter and saturn eccentricities align, you get spikes high and lows in global temperatures.

Interesting rejection from a new low today. Keep an eye on the dollar here.

Weekly russell futures gave an exhaustion signal this week. This does not mean that it is over. But I do think of demark signals as a good time to move up stops.