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Monthly Digest | November 2020

Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in November 2020. Let's explore the pages of November 2020's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.

01 November 2020

KRE... strong on friday. How weird. 200 day turned in to support. holding bullish on CCI

One of these things are not like the other...

blue shade lines september to the end of november election years. White line TLT:SPY

Gold to SPX white.

silver to gold ratio

Usuaully upside break outs in volatility lead to big moves in gold and silver. The rest of the signals are weak though.

one more chart on strength. I forgot this one earlier.


miner breadth

EEM only down 3%

fucking yen... If we actually break that 104 level. We are going to crash hard. Set a buy stop that could be a huge trade.

the jan lumber contract does not look like this. So I am assuming I have another day or two before I get filled if this keeps moving my direction.

natty, buy the break out if you're aggressive. Buy the pull back if not.

cocoa we talked about this last weekend. Buying the pull back. We had some negative fundamentals come out that led to some commercial selling. But they will be buying at these prices. We are looking for that cat system trigger. Meaning. we broke support now we want to see it close above it and buy that break out.

Good breath chart by trend investor pro.

Like I’ve said all week. Value patience here. Sell volatility on the spikes. Dry powder after the the election is key.

even though we are at resistance. buying hasnt stopped

The shorter term time frames are not as important. But it is worth a look. 13000 looks to be building support. At the moment my stop is just below that.

That could be in a text book.

had this same bottom set up in BTC a couple months ago.

Overall thought on this week. Caution. Dry powder is king. Lets look for a turn around tuesday and possibly buying this dip but ONLY after we see strength.

take it for what its worth with the election and lock downs. The end of this month is what we are looking for. November 1st and second have over 80% win rates in the last 20 years as november buying is very common. But Id be cautious

The big trade this week

02 November 2020

Dollar turning down from an overbought zone. Once again the big trade is after the election. So I am not in a hurry to act right here.

Gap out of fridays low is confirming the triangle pattern

As we talked about in the video. 1st trading days of the month are very bullish

I will bring it up one more time. The elction has brought a major trading opportunity this week. I will not be sleeping much this week but I think we are going to have a major opportunity. Check out the last audio I put up yesterday afternoon.

NEM they woke up the sleeping giant

The VIX spiked up to 40 last week, a level that has tended to carry some significance. While a rising VIX environment tends to coincide with poor N-T performance, striking such an elevated level can suggest a medium-term turn.

Going back to 1990, looking at the 11 other instances in which the VIX rose to 40 you will find that performance following these readings tended to be strongly positive. 3-month performance cleared 500bps, while 12-month performance broke +25% more than half of the time. In addition, the only instances with negative performance were before recessions, which probably isn’t where we are now.

December 03 2020

I think the small caps and the banks are about to outperform tech till year end. Let’s get ready for some awesome trading in to the end of this year.

GDX is in a major value zone today.

Option premiums are going to swell like a mother fucker today don’t sell options to early is the number one rule this week. We want to sell options when the unwind happens. Right now there are premiums all the way to a 20% crash in the spx. People are looking for a black Wednesday. When everyone is looking for it we must think... maybe not. Shorting the vix and selling options on ES will be my main weapons for this.

Do your best not to FOMO today. Keep your power dry and remember a big trade is in front of us. There is usually a shake out on election night. What I’d expect is some move down. But then we see a lot of short covering

This bounce is what we want to take advantage of - The positions I have on are in the commodity space. All small. The biggest position is Im short the 30 year bond.

Looking for a break down or a pull back in to this zone today. Ill be watching my vix model for timing

watching vvix and VXAPL will be crucial today.

Traders always fight the last battle. Looking for this quick election dip. With the positioning we could see a massive overnight move again. However. Why I’m waiting and watching is because.... NO ONE KNOWS WHAT SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT.

Great book John Netto being my favorite.

Any vix pops at this point on could probably be sold. I am going to stop out at the highs

Some unwinding of the short today. One way or another. dry powder is the move. Bit of a pop in vol in to the close. At the moment I am looking at being a seller of volatility. We wont see the real move in vol until the middle of the night

Rejected twice from the feb high.

04 November 2020

Market was fishing for stops hard overnight. That’s what the big guys do on emotional nights

That’s ok

As soon as this gets moving everything will go the other direction. I’m up and ready to start hunting premium. The better the cash amount the better... since they cut margin to shit

Great idea but I gave myself a D on execution. Had to get back in this morning after the overnight traders fished for my stops. Wasn’t expecting that range to be so wide. Luckily the idea here is that we trend higher to the end of the year. Stimulus trades like long copper and lumber. Short bonds should continue to work.

But equities should break out of the triangle and move 10% this month

I put money that the second the prez is elected vaccine news comes out. Which is why biotechs are rallying like we cured cancer.

05 November 2020

Silver break out buy signal this morning. Things are going to start happening fast.

These are my favorite patterns. BTC made the same pattern

Very rarely wll you see a 4 std move from the outside of a bband to the top of a Bband. In two days

While maintaining a down trend. Looking to enter ZB short again soon. Want to see rejection here.

SPY structure

EEM is leading the market right here. Usually when it leads. The market follows

All hail the king

That sexy bitch.

The market has a way of trending the same way over and over again. The triangles are periods of terrible returns. After and before are superior returns. If we can get out of this chop I think we will run in to a couple months of great returns which will balance out the months of chop

This is very normal and happens over and over again like clock work

I get it and I know that looks fucking crazy and things cant be that simple but it is one truth that I know about the market. It does not mean trading it is easy. With everything becomeing so correlated. All returns hit the same dead spot this year. Now... we might get out of this.

Coffee. 3 pushes to a low. Broke the down trend line. Seasonals and fundamentalists are bullish

06 November 2020

Gold master chart. We always have to respect range expansion. The bottom indicator is band width. Moves usually are ready to start when we are in a squeeze.

The first time it starts moving up is a good sign of a new trend.

oil - I always say failed moves can lead to fast moves. If you look at this you can see that we had a break down. But it had no follow through. Then bounced. Had a massive rally now we pulled back to support. If we bounce here we could see oil start to move with this market.

SPX structure for the day. Resistance right where we should see it.

ZB bonds. rejection from that rare set up.

XME. Thats a set up

Vix dropping hard while the market is flat. Looks like the market could run higher.

Everyone always says. That lumber trade is perfect. I could have sat in that. Or I’m going to jump in

But it’s so thinly traded that it has these massive intraday shocks. That’s down 5000 per contract in 5 minutes

What do you do at that point?

07 November 2020

If a correction is going to happen it btc it would happen here and now. Long term I’m just holding...

Short term the correction should be to the 13000-13500 zone. I will cation that when bitcoin gets on a run and I have no sell signals. I don’t try to trade in and out of it

Similar to silver. Lumber. Copper

I am running a 30% stop for this run. 15k was the first target. If we consolidate here we could move a lot higher. I’ll go over this, this weekend

08 November 2020

1 Rare in the world of a 20-40 vix but it looks like we have a call option trade. XBI

XBI weekly

BTCUSD weekly

BTC daily a look at the bitcoin signal. Full buy signal still

Old BTCUSD system still in a buy signal

LB_F lumber

Natty gas the most volatile asset in the land

natty Aug 2021 futures

Class 3 milk futures

coffee had a demark sequential buy signal last week. These are big contracts that can have major moves fast which is why it’s always on my radar long and short. Seasonality is bullish for coffee as well right now. As of now I am long.

Japan the strongest weekly close ever in the last 30 years.

 Failed move lead to fast moves but I wouldn’t touch Europe with a 28474737637363 foot pole.

 it’s easy to see this move... long China. Short Europe

Breadth data

Common stock up down volume.