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Monthly Digest | November 2020

Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in November 2020. Let's explore the pages of November 2020's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.


01 November 2020



KRE... strong on friday. How weird. 200 day turned in to support. holding bullish on CCI


One of these things are not like the other...





blue shade lines september to the end of november election years. White line TLT:SPY


Gold to SPX white.


silver to gold ratio



Usuaully upside break outs in volatility lead to big moves in gold and silver. The rest of the signals are weak though.


one more chart on strength. I forgot this one earlier.



frustrating.


miner breadth





EEM only down 3%






fucking yen... If we actually break that 104 level. We are going to crash hard. Set a buy stop that could be a huge trade.


the jan lumber contract does not look like this. So I am assuming I have another day or two before I get filled if this keeps moving my direction.




natty, buy the break out if you're aggressive. Buy the pull back if not.


cocoa we talked about this last weekend. Buying the pull back. We had some negative fundamentals come out that led to some commercial selling. But they will be buying at these prices. We are looking for that cat system trigger. Meaning. we broke support now we want to see it close above it and buy that break out.


Good breath chart by trend investor pro.


Like I’ve said all week. Value patience here. Sell volatility on the spikes. Dry powder after the the election is key.




even though we are at resistance. buying hasnt stopped


The shorter term time frames are not as important. But it is worth a look. 13000 looks to be building support. At the moment my stop is just below that.


That could be in a text book.







had this same bottom set up in BTC a couple months ago.






Overall thought on this week. Caution. Dry powder is king. Lets look for a turn around tuesday and possibly buying this dip but ONLY after we see strength.




take it for what its worth with the election and lock downs. The end of this month is what we are looking for. November 1st and second have over 80% win rates in the last 20 years as november buying is very common. But Id be cautious








The big trade this week


02 November 2020

Dollar turning down from an overbought zone. Once again the big trade is after the election. So I am not in a hurry to act right here.



Gap out of fridays low is confirming the triangle pattern


As we talked about in the video. 1st trading days of the month are very bullish


I will bring it up one more time. The elction has brought a major trading opportunity this week. I will not be sleeping much this week but I think we are going to have a major opportunity. Check out the last audio I put up yesterday afternoon.


NEM they woke up the sleeping giant


The VIX spiked up to 40 last week, a level that has tended to carry some significance. While a rising VIX environment tends to coincide with poor N-T performance, striking such an elevated level can suggest a medium-term turn.


Going back to 1990, looking at the 11 other instances in which the VIX rose to 40 you will find that performance following these readings tended to be strongly positive. 3-month performance cleared 500bps, while 12-month performance broke +25% more than half of the time. In addition, the only instances with negative performance were before recessions, which probably isn’t where we are now.



December 03 2020

I think the small caps and the banks are about to outperform tech till year end. Let’s get ready for some awesome trading in to the end of this year.


GDX is in a major value zone today.


Option premiums are going to swell like a mother fucker today don’t sell options to early is the number one rule this week. We want to sell options when the unwind happens. Right now there are premiums all the way to a 20% crash in the spx. People are looking for a black Wednesday. When everyone is looking for it we must think... maybe not. Shorting the vix and selling options on ES will be my main weapons for this.


Do your best not to FOMO today. Keep your power dry and remember a big trade is in front of us. There is usually a shake out on election night. What I’d expect is some move down. But then we see a lot of short covering


This bounce is what we want to take advantage of - The positions I have on are in the commodity space. All small. The biggest position is Im short the 30 year bond.


Looking for a break down or a pull back in to this zone today. Ill be watching my vix model for timing


watching vvix and VXAPL will be crucial today.


Traders always fight the last battle. Looking for this quick election dip. With the positioning we could see a massive overnight move again. However. Why I’m waiting and watching is because.... NO ONE KNOWS WHAT SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT.


Great book John Netto being my favorite.



Any vix pops at this point on could probably be sold. I am going to stop out at the highs




Some unwinding of the short today. One way or another. dry powder is the move. Bit of a pop in vol in to the close. At the moment I am looking at being a seller of volatility. We wont see the real move in vol until the middle of the night


Rejected twice from the feb high.



04 November 2020

Market was fishing for stops hard overnight. That’s what the big guys do on emotional nights


That’s ok


As soon as this gets moving everything will go the other direction. I’m up and ready to start hunting premium. The better the cash amount the better... since they cut margin to shit



Great idea but I gave myself a D on execution. Had to get back in this morning after the overnight traders fished for my stops. Wasn’t expecting that range to be so wide. Luckily the idea here is that we trend higher to the end of the year. Stimulus trades like long copper and lumber. Short bonds should continue to work.


But equities should break out of the triangle and move 10% this month


I put money that the second the prez is elected vaccine news comes out. Which is why biotechs are rallying like we cured cancer.


05 November 2020

Silver break out buy signal this morning. Things are going to start happening fast.


These are my favorite patterns. BTC made the same pattern


Very rarely wll you see a 4 std move from the outside of a bband to the top of a Bband. In two days


While maintaining a down trend. Looking to enter ZB short again soon. Want to see rejection here.


SPY structure


EEM is leading the market right here. Usually when it leads. The market follows


All hail the king


That sexy bitch.


The market has a way of trending the same way over and over again. The triangles are periods of terrible returns. After and before are superior returns. If we can get out of this chop I think we will run in to a couple months of great returns which will balance out the months of chop


This is very normal and happens over and over again like clock work


I get it and I know that looks fucking crazy and things cant be that simple but it is one truth that I know about the market. It does not mean trading it is easy. With everything becomeing so correlated. All returns hit the same dead spot this year. Now... we might get out of this.



Coffee. 3 pushes to a low. Broke the down trend line. Seasonals and fundamentalists are bullish



06 November 2020

Gold master chart. We always have to respect range expansion. The bottom indicator is band width. Moves usually are ready to start when we are in a squeeze.


The first time it starts moving up is a good sign of a new trend.



oil - I always say failed moves can lead to fast moves. If you look at this you can see that we had a break down. But it had no follow through. Then bounced. Had a massive rally now we pulled back to support. If we bounce here we could see oil start to move with this market.


SPX structure for the day. Resistance right where we should see it.


ZB bonds. rejection from that rare set up.


XME. Thats a set up


Vix dropping hard while the market is flat. Looks like the market could run higher.


Everyone always says. That lumber trade is perfect. I could have sat in that. Or I’m going to jump in


But it’s so thinly traded that it has these massive intraday shocks. That’s down 5000 per contract in 5 minutes


What do you do at that point?



07 November 2020



If a correction is going to happen it btc it would happen here and now. Long term I’m just holding...


Short term the correction should be to the 13000-13500 zone. I will cation that when bitcoin gets on a run and I have no sell signals. I don’t try to trade in and out of it


Similar to silver. Lumber. Copper


I am running a 30% stop for this run. 15k was the first target. If we consolidate here we could move a lot higher. I’ll go over this, this weekend


08 November 2020


1 Rare in the world of a 20-40 vix but it looks like we have a call option trade. XBI


XBI weekly


BTCUSD weekly


BTC daily a look at the bitcoin signal. Full buy signal still


Old BTCUSD system still in a buy signal


LB_F lumber


Natty gas the most volatile asset in the land


natty Aug 2021 futures


Class 3 milk futures


coffee had a demark sequential buy signal last week. These are big contracts that can have major moves fast which is why it’s always on my radar long and short. Seasonality is bullish for coffee as well right now. As of now I am long.


Japan the strongest weekly close ever in the last 30 years.


 Failed move lead to fast moves but I wouldn’t touch Europe with a 28474737637363 foot pole.


 it’s easy to see this move... long China. Short Europe



Breadth data


Common stock up down volume.




 NDX AD volume


 PMO model in full buy signal


NYA swing buy signal


EEM/INDU


Dow/small caps


Dow/transports.


Breadth data all points to more upside in the 1-4 week timeframe. Gold/silver/miners








gold volatility signal gave us a buy signal before the break out. Check back to last sundays weekend review.


Silver


Gold/Silver/gold miners... Charts say they have more upside ahead.


 In the last 7 years silver has not performed well in novemember. The charts are saying the opposite right now. However we run in to some great seasonality for gold and silver in december and Jan.




09 November 2020

Bitcoin fear and greed index is really high. Does not mean sell but it does mean that short term traders should be open to a pull back.



Have I ever mentioned that an election being over is incredibly bullish.


I’ve been saying that the relative strength in small caps has looked like it was ready to leave the nasdaq (down earlier this morning) in the dust. Banks outperforming... get ready for the next leg of the cycle.



XOM we have slowly been legging in to energy. This could be the start of a new trend. Most trades are working in our favor this morning after a lot of chop last month. The ones that are not is gold and silver which have backtested the break out gaps. The safety trades have changed.


JPY CHF gold silver all down...


Bitcoin as well. Because they fixed all the debt problems with the vaccine...


LOL. Patience is needed here.


Either that is the best gap and crap ever. Or the best gap out of a triangle ever...


The close is important. As well as tomorrow. A strong close will tell us that there is a lot of buyers left.


A weak close will tell us the opposite.


Opened gold bull put spread here. The price of the end of week gold options jumped by 2000% this morning...


Yes there is some premium to sell... lol


Catching falling Knifes is a losers game but my short term signals point to a bounce in gold and silver right now.


"If the gold bet works, the Bitcoin (BTC-USD) bet will work better," says hedge funder Stan Druckenmiller in a CNBC appearance. Bitcoin, he says, has plenty of attraction as an asset class and store of value to not just millennials, but West Coast tech-types. It's been around 13 years and picks up more branding value each day, he notes.

He adds that has far more of his money in gold than he does in the most popular of cryptocurrencies.

Druckenmiller joins Paul Tudor Jones, Jack Dorsey, Michael Saylor, among others in putting a portion of their vast wealth in Bitcoin.


Druckenmiller is the best trader of all time. What they left out is that he was against bitcoin for years. This is a major switch.


Broad market is giving rejection signals today. This could be the time that we see a pull back.



10 November 2020

Dollar is in the oversold zone but no buy signal yet


Nasdaq vol model. No real warnings yet but we did get a bounce in vol today


Small caps volatility.


No breadth thrust today


SPX weekly.


If you have been in this room for awhile you already know what I am going to say. POSSIBLE 2B sell signal creeping up here. This is when you get a move to the upside that gets rejected.


If tomorrow opens gap down I'll look for trades on the other side of the market and shed my longs. A move to all time highs without follow thorugh is pretty meaningless.


No signal yet. We will look at it tomorrow.


Most importantly. We want to see the triangle hold to stay in bullish trend. What I think will happen... (which does not matter but let’s speculate) tech will join the party I’m the next couple days which will lead to a strong rally. I don’t think the market can rally for long without tech gaining some ground here. That does not mean that tech has to lead.


Currencies I like here are the CAD, AUD, NZD, CHF, MXN... in no particular order. Holding 4 at the moment


Tech did an open range reversal this morning. Apple is strong. This could be a point where tech attempts to join the rally.


Swissy looks poised for a move up here


Structure. SPY is holding the top of the triangle at the moment and it bounced after it hit it.


OBV is in a down trend. Which is not that uncommon if we are just consolidating here for a move higher.


In case you missed my seasonality study last month. In the last 7 years november has been a winner


In the last 30 years the win rate is till over 75%. Seasonality is not something to blindly place trades with. It is something to gain confidence in an idea. Bull put spread in BABA 2 week ex. Slightly OTM




Breadth indicators. Very strong


The breadth thrust signals wont update until tonight but I think we got a Zweig breadth thrust today. Copper had a range reversal today


Lumber.... Raging


Oil still stong. The weakest sectors are showing strength.


So far I dont see anything bearish about this market besides the fact that tech has been overdone for 4423423423 years and its taking a breath.



11 November 2020


I was thinking about the bond cycle tonight. How crazy it was to post this back then and the fact that I did not even really believe it. There are really interesting patterns in nature that we do not understand. Bond yields have moved up ever since and it reminds me of the inflation deflation argument...


Gold goes up.


breaks out


Hits 2k


People still laugh at me about talking about inflation... Gold was 1200 in 2018


March 9th the 30 year bond has never been lower since


Wheat prices at a 5 year high


Soybeans...


The point in this is, that our ego keeps us from making money. I'm short bonds. Everyone who knows that says that the fed will blank and blank and blank and my positions will get destroyed. As traders we really have to turn off the noise around us and really tap in to what we know to be true.


At the same time we have to be able to have a strong opinion that we are willing to walk away from


Always knowing that we will be wrong more than we will be right.


EIA forecasts for oil should be down across the board. Very bullish for oil if my forecast is accurate.

OPEC: “Chinese Crude Imports in September At 11.8 Mln B/D, Third Highest on Record After June, July”


And boom goes the dynamite. News is always a lagging indicator. The price of oil is up from 35 to 43 in a week...


We thought the NAZ could bottom yesterday. It is involved with the rally today


Coffee. 3 pushes to a low or an W bottom is a good way of finding actual bottoming patterns. I like 3 pushes to a low while creating divergence on your indicator of choice


Short term overbought signal on the dollar


Small caps havent been a leader in so long that people forgot that it could lead the pack


Bitcoin hourly. Very close to another leg higher


Could be a good place to take profits on oil here. Overbought signal and reversing hard after this morning


12 November 2020


Need a strong day tomorrow for a zweig breadth thrust.


July 22 and mid March gold was in backwardation. Gold is in backwardation again right now




Spy structure. Still holding the line today



Risk on sectors are strong today


BTC took the break out and we are sitting at 16k now


SPY intraday oversold. Could move higher in to the close


Time to start taking down some exposure here on the long side for me. Vix signaled a warning


Still all the same positions. Just smaller.


13 November 2020


Hopefully we can end this week at a new high in AD breadth


Strong Friday’s can lead to a strong Monday


For you uranium guys. I usually buy the individual stocks CCJ UUUU NXE. I wasn’t s fan of the ETF URA. URNM is a much better ETF. If you’re looking for broad exposure


Equal weight SPX on the bottom



RSP equal weight


SPY market cap weighted


Tech is the biggest component of the nasdaq. I wanted to explain this because I have been talking about this fact lately. It is important because it has allowed tech to carry the entire market since march.


NYSE advance decline volume. First time we have ended the week at a new high in quite some time


This keeps getting shared. TOO BULLISH. CRASH INCOMING


Lets really look at this


I have never found much of an edge using AAII bulls


SPX SPY all time closing high today