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Monthly Digest | May 2021

Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in May 2021. Let's explore the pages of May 2021's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.


May 01 2021

We will talk about the grain trade this weekend. As well as others. Moisture is being pulled away from the western US and South America. Some ags that haven’t moved will move


Coffee


Sugar (both have moved but not as much as the others)


Call options in October coffee come highly recommended if you trade futures. 1-3% of your account.


Also I should say... buying calls on the ag ETFs... very illiquid. Not worth your time


May 02 2021

May 1 2021 issue
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May 03 2021

Precious metals waking up!


Micro Bitcoin futures


Launch later today


Couple updates. 


Going to talk to Tony Greer of TG Macro this month. Also talking to X games champ Daniel Dhers.


I’m planning on bringing in people outside of trading. High performers, to talk about discipline, determination and more.



BTC and the ten year yield


Housing Supply. From GS



May 04 2021

The fed is buying further out on the curve.


Long Yields are having trouble turning higher.


However commodities are melting up... which says that isn’t organic.


Gold and silver have perked up with the rest of the commodity complex.


This could be the time that gold and silver become the outperforms again.


Lindsay brought up an important point in the public group today that I’ll try to explain deeper in a voice note today. As a swing trader(I also went over the difference in the 4 different portfolios a couple days ago. Selling Bitcoin futures isn’t the same as selling Bitcoin in the short term portfolios or the long term portfolios.) you have to take the signals. This is why I constantly talk about detaching your ego from trading. This is also why I continue to interview top traders and they continue to say what I’m telling you all. “Don’t worry about the whipsaws.”


I think the only difference between am traders and professionals is the fact that pros can look at a trade totally detached or they have the ability to follow a plan and sit. If you’re a trend trader you are dedicated to finding outlier trades. Rare trades. Things that double/triple/quad... there is only one way to catch those trades consistently. Take shots. Don’t be afraid to miss. Understand that if you miss you’ll get out with a small loss and if you win the upside can have enormous potential.


I’ll dig in to that more later.


They literally took the price limits off the may lumber futures contract. I’ve never seen that happen before. Not sure if it’s ever happened.



YELLEN SAYS RATES MAY HAVE TO RISE TO STOP ECONOMY OVERHEATING 🥵 LOL


May 05 2021

Laterly there has been a lot of shit talking on gold. Lets not forget what the long run looks like in commodities.


Energy is close to a major breakout accross the board. Gasoline up 99% in 6 months.


No inflation... dummies lol


RBOB gasoline



The crude oil chart shows how significant this break out would be


As I said before I wouldnt write off oil


GDX breadth. We bounced out of the wash out zone


ISM and PMI possibly peaked last month. Something that tells us to watch for signals in my intermarket analysis. Meaning that now we have a headwind. The price action will tell us when to shift. There is no reason to shift yet.


Brazilian Exports in APR to +50.5% YoY; best since JUN ’04.


Some of these trends are unbelievable.


Lumber, Bitcoin, ETH, copper miners, uranium and so on...


However you have to understand the main driver - The fed


If you can understand the fed, the rate of change of inflation and the rate of change of growth. You can figure out exactly where you need to be. These are reasons we chose ags, crypto, copper and so on


The goal isn’t to celebrate winning one round. The goal is to constantly be consistent.


“You’re only a success at the moment that you complete a successful act.” - Phil Jackson


The jobs not finished.


May 06 2021


That's a set up.


Once again... I really think there is a great set up here. Tight ranges create low volatility and cheap calls. I have calls on some majors in the miners space. Calls on silver futures (30 dollar) and calls on gold futures.


Now when we talk about home run mode for those who are new to the room. For my futures account. The goal for each year is 40%. Once we hit that I’ll put on more aggressive trades. Meaning adding to position sizes, options and so on. Looking for those outsized 5x or 10x winners in options . Meaning if im risking a dollar I’m looking to make 5. You can create those ratios using options models.


We hit our goal in the first two months of the year and trends have been on a rampage since for the futures clients


This gives us risk capital.


Why do we wait? Because above all you should protect your ass. Two managing money is not the same as sending trade with your own risk capital but I would suggest having a game plan like this. If you are losing 50% you have to gain 100% to get to even. If you work on not losing money you’ll make money.


So as we have hit our goal and now our home run mode goal. You’ll start to see more speculative trades.


Call options on silver being a great way to play this one. As the break out targets 50


That break of 27.55 of the near month contract could lead to major upside - Uranium






Canola... I know that I’m probably the only one who trades it here but holy hell what a trend


May 07 2021

Coffee breaking out of the monthly bollinger bands.


Speaking of Ag stocks. This is one I have talked about before. It has not been able to get out of this range for years.


It finally made it. This thing still should have major upside.




May 08 2021


This pic is from 5 years ago. She’s always funny.


May 09 2021

May 9 2021 issue
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May 10 2021



I mentioned that I was going to backtest and come up with another way of looking at the EM ratio because of the weighting in the EEM ETF with China


This backtest seemed the most promising with a 72% BA.


Real yields turning down hard!


Cattle has a swing buy signal today. Went over this trade in the weekend report.


May 11 2021

To elaborate on the above graph. The pressure on gold and silver has been from the rise in real yields. However this is the pattern that I always talk about. 


When corn was flat for months while the dollar was rising it was telling you that we could see some major upside in corn as corn was holding up strong. Then corn exploded.


We saw silver stay flag for 8 months while yields rose at the fastest pace in history. (That’s a fact)


Now the rate of inflation is giving an added boost to real yields.




And that nasdaq 100 is green. Also if you are in here and you are not checking out the PDFs, you are missing out on the major research.


India looks good.



May 12 2021

Gas stations are literally without of gasoline all over the US.


Atlanta just reported that 20% of stations are without gasoline.


Just a thought but with the way the CAD is moving, the issues around energy, past weather issues, chronic Covid issues that are still hanging around (not the illness, the supply issues)


The CAD could be hinting at a run to 75 in oil.



This is what I meant. All signals pointed to another jump in inflation


We got it. What is the largest jump since 81...



Something to always remember and this is where intermarket analysis comes in. The data will always be lagging.


Point being when people say I’ll buy when inflation shows up. Or when people say I would buy Brazilian agriculture stocks but I’m going to wait until this Covid situation shakes out... they are already too late.


When everyone is saying how stupid you are, it’s usually the best time to buy. When celebrities are talking about it and it’s in the news daily. It’s already too late.



Sectors day


YTD.


Value is still leading the way. Growth is still lagging.


Country analysis is important. Why? What do you see when you look at the countries that are leading the pack?


Energy exporters are leading the pack.





ETH against BTC. Relative charts showed that this was going to happen. Check out the first April issue.


GASOLINE OUTAGES as of 10am CT... percent of all stations in state without gasoline:

  • GA 17.5%

  • AL 2.1%

  • TN 3.6%

  • SC 16.2%

  • NC 28.2%

  • FL 4.6%

  • VA 17.1%

  • MD 4.1%

  • NEWLY ADDED MS 1.7%

  • NEWLY ADDED WV 2.8%



Long term chart on XOM. Blue lines point to the volatility roll over which usually led to long term rallies in energy. XOM is the biggest part of the energy sector.


MRO making the biggest moves YTD.


The russell has a ton of commercial buying in to this consolidation.



May 13 2021



May 14 2021

Interview with Tony Greer.


May 15 2021


May 17 2021

May 16 2021
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If you ever want to know when China is buying agricultural commodities


Watch when corn falls hard for a week


Then wait for the overnight market and see what happens


Look at today’s corn chart to see what that looks like


Bitcoins ready to bounce. Short term traders. 51k would be the target


Stop would be at the low of today. 


For the record I am not a short term trader these days. I post these based on a short term system I use to stay on top of the daily ranges.


To explain further while things are in a down trend. I would rather be selling at the top of an implied move


So selling at the 51k zone and covering at the lower zone which is 42390. As a short term trader you can trade either direction.


These trades are shorter than my short term trend model. This is the 1-3 day action.


I don’t talk about this type of trading much because it’s very tough and draining in my opinion but as questions keep coming in about short term price action. I’ll answer that question here.


(That should be an R for resistance on ZB)


Silver over 28!


Its a good thing we dont need things like coal, oil and so on anymore...


Oh wait that is coal in the number 1 spot for the strongest sector.


The majors have gone crazy.


In the gold mining space - FNV NEM and some of our favorites are breaking out or near the old highs.


FNV today is the first chart. FNV from the reversal point is the second chart




May 18 2021

Cotton has a buy signal today as well as cocoa


Silver is raging. And the miners even more so. The goal did this week was to get gold to jump over the 200 day. It did. We call that a gap and go.


Silver and the miners are leading now. This is what we want to see


I had a great question today so I’ll make a very short video


The topic is good, bad trades


Based on when I talk about the 4 different types of trades


Don’t worry I have tons of examples. Good trades, bad trades, hide in a hole and wait to die trades. LOL



So simple and so important


May 19 2021

Bitcoin blasted through its trend signal today however it did bounce right off of the 200 day MA AKA Algo city.


These could recover these levels so we need to see where we close


Video on BTC


Lumber looks like it bottomed after 6 limit down days.


Retail prices aren’t falling and probably won’t fall for awhile meaning this could move up again.


Crazy.


What we talked about. Bitcoin above the 200 Day.



Broad market. VIX and VVIX are putting in reversals


Add that to bitcoin getting bought up (says liquidity is around)



Another clue lumber finding support around the 50 day MA


From limit down to limit up.


Crude getting bought up.


And the curve looks great for higher crude prices



Then NEM giving no fucks about any of it lol


May 20 2021

In the lead for may. Silver and gold.


May 21 2021

Bitcoin is about to put in another inside day.


Double inside days are important patterns. Most of the time if the price gaps up or down. Or gets above it or below. 


You’ll see significant follow through.



I am also concerned. Do you know what powers the homes that we plug our electric cars in to... LOL


May 22 2021

This is complete speculation and I’m not a fan of sharing these thoughts but I will for once.


That wasn’t a pretty close for Bitcoin today.


However the way it looked reminded me of some things I’ve seen before in the past.


Very rarely do you have a nasty close on Friday and a strong Monday but sometimes, just sometimes it does happen.


Usually this happens when everyone is scared shitless but there is no one left to sell.


At these points. This is when the market rewards those who hold over the weekend.


I absolutely can’t tell the future but I thought I would share this because it’s reminded me of many, many spike bottoms.


I could absolutely be wrong about this so please don’t come to me on Monday and say I sold my house and bought Bitcoin and it fell LOL.


However a small position here with a stop at last weeks low. Could be a low risk trade especially with bitcoins ability to trade on the weekends.


A great overview of what trend trades look like - Trend Following Charts and Examples


Some additions from the book. Dunn being one of the great trend following firms. It’s a log scale so look at the right side for the return compared to the SPX


Favorable trades for Dunn


Unfavorable



So I share this because so many people think of whipsaws as this horrible frustrating thing. It is. However did it destroy their returns to have this 3 years of frustration from one market? No. The quicker you understand that this is a probabilities game the faster you’ll make money. This systems more short term than anyone would use these days (currencies use to actually trend. Seriously)


This looks like a 50 day high (buy) 25 day low (neutral) 50 day low (sell) system.


In the 20-70s the guys who ripped the markets face off return wise used 20 day high (buy) 20 day low (sell)


Neither of these systems work today.


Most of the systems moved to MA’s, standard deviation, vol break outs or longer term break outs. 100-200 day highs.


May 23 2021



Bitcoin. The 4 hour has a W bottom set up. This is in my report but it may come out late so I wanted to point this out.


Eth 4 hour with a 2B set up.


Very risky But these are the set ups you want to see for low risk high reward buys. Stops at the lows



May 24 2021

BTC bottoms around full moons.



May 23 2021
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May 25 2021

Talking about the pain trade being to the upside. Still


When the trend and the pain trade is to the upside and a lot of traders are 😱... this leads to a good set up. There is no such thing as a perfect set up.



Corn is at the bottom of it’s implied move.


Extreme premiums on contracts as well. If a move higher I’d going to happen, it’s here.


May 26 2021

Eth futures contracts are up 38k per contract at this point. Stops are now in profit.




May 27 2021


CADUSD leading oil. Saying more upside in oil


What about copper? The same



What about heating oil... Same


What about the one year spread...


How about bonds?


Basically the trade here is to go long, oil, heating oil or gasoline. Copper, XLE... You name it. On the breakout. And short bonds on the break down. Stay ready.


May 28 2021

XBI buy signal



May 30 2021



Last voice note is long but it talks about the macro approach. How you need to think about all of these markets


This all started from a conversation with my daughter who asked why so many yen equals one dollar. Which turned in to why each country produces what they produce and why the currencies move


May 31 2021

Some of the charts I’ve gone through today...


The COT data is insane. Producers are seeing major upside in building materials to the point where it’s abnormal


I will say this again I HAVE NEVER EVER SEEN COMMERCIALS INCREASE BUYING EVERY WEEK IN UPTRENDS


They are.

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