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Monthly Digest | March 2021

Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in March 2021. Let's explore the pages of March 2021's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.


March 01 2021

The US dominant ags are set up well coming in to this week. If we are going to start hearing about weather events effecting ags. It will happen in the next two weeks


Cotton, wheat, cattle and so on.


We have enter March. On our models combined with general seasonal patterns. We think that March could have a buying opportunity in it. Please check out the Jan 23rd weekend report. The presidential cycle charts are from Larry Williams.


MSOS pure canibus ETF will open with a buy signal this morning


Coffee chopped around for awhile but now it has taken out the old high. Next resistance 143.


Got the pattern in cocoa last week still seeing follow through. Maybe it will hold this time.


Last friday we talked about bitcoin getting a rejection signal. Today we want to see BTC close above the white 10 EMA above 48532.





March 02 2021

Patience today with oil and energy because of opec.



From Bruce Kovner


Sugar put in a reversal signal today.


Commodities across the board look like they have bottomed.


March 03 2021

Weights for portfolios and futures will be added to the letter.




XLE up today again. With the market down.



The market is not pointing to any a twist or YCC yet. Everyone is looking for powell to talk about it Tomorrow.


EGO Eldorado gold corp just came in to a buy zone today and it is reversing off of the zone.



March 04 2021

Voice messsge on where we are at today, how I’m not a big fan of how crowded the long side of the trade has become. Tightening up stops on futures. Long term portfolio, no change.


Top 3 leaders are energy stocks.



I always say how it is important to understand the general structure of the market.


This is how heavily weighted the SPX is in tech stocks. This is why it can fall as energy and other sectors rip higher.


The market looks completely different if you remove the market weighted and look at the equal weight (RSP bottom chart). We had a very thin rally on the way up. Now it is broad but technology is bloated.



See how the equal weight underperformed and now its finally outperforming.









March 05 2021




Platinum and copper are at the bottom of their implied moves. Good add points.


Both sitting on heavy support/high volume zones.


Am I spooked by Powell’s remarks... no not at all. The fed is always behind the curve and always leans on the side of inflation... why?


One word. DEBT.


They can not raise rates like they did in the 70s anymore. They can barely stop the printing press


Still cautious at the moment. (Smaller positions, moving up stops well in to profit). But sticking to the plan.


Dollar in a failure zone.



If we do take another leg up, the Dow stocks will be the one to lead it. I haven’t said this since... I’ve never said that lol.


Russia with a great set up today. Up 2% during the market sell off.


Yearly ranges are important. Similar to the opening range I talk about a lot but more significant.


YTD here is the range we want to see hold.



What a sentiment wash out lol. Nothing changes price like sentiment.


Damnit I said that backwards lol. Nothing changes sentiment like price


Price is down for a couple weeks and everyone became depressed. Reminds me of late 2019, everytime the market would dip 5% everyone would get extremely bearish.


Russell held the 10 EMA


On the daily it was rejected from the lows in the flag pattern. Another bullish signal.


Finally one of my favorite short term signals. Failed break down (oops). The most powerful patterns in TA are usually the failed patterns.


A lot of reversal bottoms today. Strong fridays lead to... strong Monday’s. Usually


The reversal in the NAZ today is interesting, will yields take a rest here. If they do the naz might lead again. If they are flat to down that won’t be the case.


My projections and models are saying that would be short lived if anything but worth noting the possibility of that over the next few weeks.


I still think there are much better places to put your money. Like small caps, micro caps, financials, energy, mining, coal, transports, shipping... I could go on LOL.


After a few crazy up weeks in February we had a shake out last week. This week was pretty flat which was nice considering all of the volatility thanks to my concentration on the strong sectors. Ended the week up 4.1%. Catastrophic stop at 17%.



March 06 2021


Against All Odds-March 6


Blue section-Don’t forget the plan:

Equities - Cautiously bullish - as always risk management is key. No switch to a bearish posture yet but sticking to the strongest sectors and indices. Small caps, Energy, financials and commodity based countries.

Do not cap the upside by taking profits on the way up. I will be holding on to my positions. All of my positions are well into profit since these trades started in October/November.


Understanding our framework.


Our narrative, crowd psychology, trading regime and technical models have to link up with our trade horizons. The trade horizon I look for is the intermediate term trends. 1-6 months is my general trade time frame for futures and the ideas behind those trades usually last much longer. 6 months to 16 months  is my general time frame for my long term portfolio. In a world of instant gratification I think that finding these major swings while everyone is trying to trade for the month end or quarter end has enormous potential. You can also use what I do to stay on the right side of the trends in the shorter term while I stick to this timeline. This also means that our stops have to be wide enough to disprove our hypothesis. 


The market cares about the rate of change of macro data. So, we care about the rate of change of data as well. The market cares about positioning and sector/asset rotation so we care about those things as well. The market reacts to its ability to discount news so we dig into that as well. The major part of our fundamental framework uses data and intermarket analysis to assess where we are at in the economic cycle. Most of the time the data will lag the intermarket analysis. When that happens we will trust the price action over the fundamentals. At the moment we are in an inflationary/expansionary phase. We think that there will be corrections and at some point inflation will put so much pressure on the market that stagflation is a likely scenario.


At the moment it looks like an asian/commodity country led economic recovery and we are staying away from Europe for the most part. The only way out of this amount of debt in these economies is currency depreciation. Something that these developed economies have not seen in many years but emerging economies have seen this before.


US Sectors


What a reversal when it comes to style factors.


Brazil showing some extreme divergence last week


Major currencies, six months


Major currencies, six months


Yields


Yields


CCC performing much better than High grade debt... still. Risk on?


Intermarket analysis/Dow charts


  1. Intermarket analysis/Dow charts


2. Intermarket analysis/Dow charts


3. TRANSPORTS/DOW. Both at new closing highs


4. Risk on still rules


5. CRB/USB


6. Silver to gold ratio


7. GDXJ/GDX


8. GDX/GLD


9. KRE:SPY SPI in red


10. XLK:QQQ if the FAANGs are going to bounce, it would happen here.


11 CL:SPY Oil SPX ratio. Breadth and sentiment


March 07 2021

 1. Equal weight SPX at a new weekly closing high


NYMO bouncing from oversold


NOYAD (Blue). Small cap AD (Red)


Bull/Bear chart holding strong


VIX Model


SPY Seasonality


All signals here point to a short term bottom.


BDI/XME


GDX Breadth. Positions/Trades



BTC system still long from October 7th. What do we really know about the future. Nothing! What you can do is create systems that gets you in at the beginning of trends and out as close to the end as possible. Thats it! Trend following is not the right way of saying it. It's much more.



Bitcoin seasonality


Soybeans. Still long.


Copper-long: inside day


XLE energy weekly-long: Closed over the 200 week MA for the first tie since 2019


XME weekly


KRE A lot of all time closing highs


RSX Russia with a band squeeze break out set up. Buying above 25.72 to confirm.


Wheat. Numbers come out on Tuesday


Lumber. Also in live with the back to school trades.


WOOD. Global Timber and forestry. Long ready to break higher


30 year bonds-made it all the way back to the 200 week MA. Still short.


Cocoa


Cocoa seasonality


Natural Gas Trading like Natural gas


Platinum coming all the way back to value


GDX


Coffee not as bad as it looks


I always like these failed break down patterns


The taget we have been looking at since November got hit but I dont see a reason to close the trade yet.


Dollar


Ending note, lets talk about sentiment.




Some highlights from hedge fund market wizards




March 08 2021

Everyone got short last week



From Shawn Hackett


Equal weight SPX at new highs


GDX putting in a versal bottom. Needs to clear 32.03 to confirm


March 09 2021

Ok this is very interesting. Insider buying in the NAZ has hit a major point


Still not a fan of the naz in this environment but I can't deny that signal.


We have an interesting set up right now. Yields are overbought badly so they need to fall


The dollar is overbought badly as well. This type of set up usually leads to a massive bounce in the precious metals


Bitcoin likes this environment as well


Currencies work well with mean reversion systems. If we get a bounce from the 40 MA (teal line and clear yesterdays high. We will get a buy signal. GBPUSD


WASDE at noon. Working on some new chartlists and editing old ones on stock charts. If you have a stockcharts account let me know and Ill pass it your way


March 10 2021

"The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time."

-Jesse Livermore



Tim just brought up that NG is in a good zone. High volume zone.


March 11 2021




OJ resistance becoming support set up


OJ resistance becoming support set up


OJ resistance becoming support set up


RGR


Good moves in the long term portfolio today


RSX band squeeze break out