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Monthly Digest | June 2021

Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in June 2021. Let's explore the pages of June 2021's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.


June 01 2021

Gold and silver look great



Bitcoin W bottom looks great



Bonds want to move lower and oil and the cad higher



If you’re in futures wheat is actionable. As a buy




June issue AAO
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Tony sums up my thoughts in a sentence this morning.


"Fading the copper rally here sounds like putting a campfire out with your face"

- Tony Greer




June 02 2021


"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong."


June 03 2021


Added to two positions today as they hit the bottom of the implied move


Added to the 30 dollar September silver calls. And the CHF Long.


Basically there is nothing that I am seeing today that I don't like.






June 04 2021

The AD line is so strong here.



You should always journal about your trades. Our personalities naturally get very bullish around tops and very bearish around bottoms. Staying open minded, present and believing anything can happen is important.


Also it’s important to realize that when you talk to other people. If it’s a trade no one else is seeing. That’s the best time to take the trade



All dips continue to get bought



The world index is already at new highs



IWM is in limbo around this breakout



This is the most beautiful squeeze set up


KRE - If this moves up it is going to explode





June 05 2021



Russia... still my favorite global market... long term


June 06 2021




June 07 2021


Fully long OJ has been a tough trade but it seems like we are moving forward. Especially as we come in to hurricane season.


Biotech became a half position when we talked about this wedge a couple weeks ago.


Today we added a full position as we broke over resistance and the 200 day MA


This is important because of what it means to the market. This is a very risk on sector.



CHINA'S GOLD RESERVES WERE $119.02 BILLION AT THE END OF MAY, UP FROM $110.73 BILLION AT THE END OF APRIL. - PBOC


Large ROC


This is just me running my mouth so take it with a grain of salt if you’d like. Based on the very short term signals that I’m seeing, the market should hit new highs tomorrow.


SPX.


Watch japan


Iwm


KRE


As leading indicators.


The option flow skewed to the upside today meaning the range has 4% up and 1% down to start today. The vix range… the bottom of it has a fucking 12 handle. Anything can happen but there are many things pointing to another leg up


Timing wise. I’d say, today, tomorrow or Wednesday should be the day that shows us the direction that we are going to run.


June is a nasty month usually. One of the worst. Usually we move to the upside and get clobbered. Risk control will be the key to sustainable returns this month.


June 08 2021




EM currencies are really trying to put in a bottom here.



SPY structure



I have more conviction that this fucker is about to rip to the upside




Everything is saying that this market is about to explode higher.


Not sure how long it lasts but if we break out here it could be a really strong move.


June 09 2021


Lumber gave an oversold implied move buy signal today.


Orange juice areas are under extreme pressure here. Very bullish for futures prices. Grains still under major pressure in the us As well.




June 10 2021

Something interesting going on in FB right now. Zuck is dumping heavily.




CPI is out. Markets look shaky but watch the vix, yen, bonds…


They are all acting exactly like they would if the market has more upside.  Beware of super anticipated events. They can become major non events.


June 11 2021

Sectors YTD


Sectors today


Today we saw a risk off event in the market. One day does not make a trend but this is what you would see in a disinflation or growth slowing environment


Watching the sectors will help you create a road map. This was one day so it is not important. But we want to watch this.


The next stage of the cycle could lead to a gold, tech, bond rally. This is not here yet, but we need to listen to the market here.


Also keep in mind. June can have a nasty sell off. Nothing is saying that yet. But it usually happens after OPEX. So june 18.




Both AD lines are stronger than price.


Oil is doing a great job holding this break out


Copper has been consolidating. It is not breaking down though. For now nothing has changed but we are getting a warning.



There is a sector of our energy trade that has been smashing the others. It’s coal.



I like talking about the energy and commodities trades because they got so hated. It shows that you have good trading knowledge when you can look for trades that everyone hates.


June 13 2021

This looks like it is ready to regain trend here.


June 14 2021

June 12 21
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1850 retest in gold.

Silver is strong.

Miners strong


This looks like a classic retest of the 1850 zone.


Look at that hammer candle on silver futures. Bullish.


Brazil is having a day.






June 15 2021

Here is the interview with Patrick




Very close. Using price action only. This is breaking out of the W bottom. This is where you would buy a W bottom.


Lets look at the structure of the oil market. The breakout is holding well. I certainly think we can make it to 76 before the rally is over.


JNK risk on today.


TLT risk off


Yen weak


Euro weak but certainly not dead. Up today.


Energy up nicely on the day





So I have been talking about a goldilocks environment?


What does that mean. So coming out of the march bottom that is what that looks like.


Tech leads, but everything can rise as well. Also tech does not have to lead.


It also does not lead to commodities crashing.


I would be ready to buy the break out in the strongest tech stocks or sectors soon though.


Seasonal trend on the NAZ


Look at that high volume bar at the top.


This tells us that if we get over that zone we are going to take the fuck off.


This is what I was talking about on 14/06/2021.


1850 is major support. We put in an inside day as well today. If tomorrow is an up day that could start a new leg higher.


June 16 2021


I made a bunch of posts about commodities on my Twitter


If you’re looking for an oil set up, check out OXY.



GDX area of interest


Fib levels


KL is holding up well


NEM still strong.


Gold is hanging out around moving averages. Miners are much stronger. The pull back is not pretty. The dollar gained major ground today. Time to panic? Not yet.



Still oil only fell .44 in the front month contract


Corn was up


Wheat was up


Shipping stocks were up



Biotechs were up. Risk on


KRE up


JNK:TLT ratio. Up



June 17 2021

Gold and silver stops were hit overnight. Copper and corn stops are close.


Did the fed change the trade? I’ll go over it later.


  • "There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty."

  • If you want to trade consistently, without the swings in confidence, then you have to learn to accept, even "celebrate, the feeling of uncertainty. This is the work of the Trading Tribe."


-Sekoyta


  • "No speculator can be right all the time...the truth is there is no investment which doesn’t involve some risk and is not something of a gamble.” - Bernard Baruch

  • “No guide can be 100% right.” - Jesse Livermore

  • “No system of forecasting the movements of the stock market can be infallible.” - Humphrey Neill

  • “...nothing is sure in any field of life.” - Gerald Loeb

  • “You pays your money and you takes your chances.” - Richard Dennis

  • “...what works most of the time is nearly the opposite of what works in the long run.” - Bill Eckhardt

  • “...[trend following] is going to stop working [for periods of time]...” - Jerry Parker

  • “There is no single trading or investment approach that works every time.” - Larry Hite

  • “In the markets, just about everything works sometimes, and hardly anything works all the time.” - Ed Seykota

  • “Nothing works all the time.” - Bruce Kovner

  • “There are periods of choppy markets when my style of investment is worse than useless.” - George Soros

  • “Reality is...hoping that you can make a few bucks when conditions are good, and praying that you’ll survive crashes, plagues, and earthquakes long enough so that someday you’ll see the pleasant light of another bull market and have some money left to play it.” - Martin Zweig


June 18 2021

Eth position still around.


Buy stop on BTC added. At red line



SPX and all SPDR ETFs go ex div on triple witch


Index futures expire at the open


Many commodity futures expire today as well


This usually leads to a volatile 830-10 zone


Most of the ags are limit up today


Crazy


If the market closes here. I would not be afraid to get defensive.


June 19 2021

June 20 2021

June 21 2021



June 22 2021

If there was a final flush in Bitcoin and it closes above 30k today.


I’d assume that might be the final hit, Hit. Stops have been fished for. If you’ve traded forex you understand the term. Here is a good illustration.



Basically you have these major support zones (this is why we wait for closes)


Prices are pushed past them. Stops are triggered and hit.



It is what creates these wick bottoms.


Am I sure that we bounce here? Probably.


Do I know we will break out here and take out 41k? No


This is where you need to understand your time frame. Looking for the big swing, I will wait. If you are looking for just a push back to 41 and you want to have a close stop under 30k. That is a short term trade.


June 23 2021

I know people on here aren’t interested in trading canola, palm oil and soybean oil…


You should be


The U.S. is pumping about 1.9 million fewer barrels a day since Covid-19 caused prices to tumble last year, a reduction that’s bigger than Nigeria and Venezuela’s production combined. That’s bad for consumers -- creating higher prices at the pump -- and is a boon for the producers of OPEC+ as it gives the coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia more room for maneuver to bring back their own production. But it’s also set the domestic shale industry on a more sustainable path, directly to the benefit of equity and bond investors.


An addition to yesterdays short term idea. Basically we are in consolidation. You can play the range but this is not a long term trade.


Number two, why is this pattern important.


It’s a 2b pattern


The 2B Rule In an uptrend, if a higher high is made but fails to carry through, and then prices drop below the previous high, then the trend is apt to reverse. The converse is true for downtrends. trends. This observation applies in any of the three trends; short-term, intermediate-term, term, or long-term.


June 24 2021

Basically last week the fed won. This week I’m avenging Chappy. Next week?


June 25 2021

And there goes the banks…


June 28 2021


  • "Even if you have to go through hell, go without hesitation.” – Albert Einstein

  •  “When going through hell, keep going.” – Winston Churchill


June 29 2021

Futures traders. Sept lumber looks like it’s bottomed.


Research for the July monthly issue is looking good.


Now if you look at sept lumber you’ll see why I will suggest a close stop based on the 200 DMA. This creates a low risk set up. If the market is going to continue lumber has to move higher as well. Lumber has a close relationship with yields. So two things. We want to see lumber continue and we want yields to confirm


This is what we would see if this trade is going to continue.



June 30 2021

Corn limit up…


Market rule 2435324


Nothing needs to happen.



This is why I really hate the value vs growth debate


People pull up a chart of the ETF


Here you go... 43% financials lol


What makes up growth? Tech


Great, I will let them keep talking about it on twitter. We can keep talking about sectors. lol




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