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Monthly Digest | July 2021

Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in July 2021. Let's explore the pages of July 2021's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.


July 02 2021



The funds have not been short the dollar for awhile. Commercials remain short. I will be looking forward to this weeks COT report




July 04 2021


July 05 2021

I’ve posted this book 142422 times. Because I think it’s the best book that will give you direction in your journey.


Edwin_LeFevre_Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator
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Some of my favorites -


“I was 20 when I made my first 10K, and I lost that.  But I knew how and why – because I traded out of season all the time; because when I couldn’t play according to my system, which was based on study and experience, I went in and gambled.  I hoped to win, instead of knowing that I out to win on form.”


“For instance, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market, and I had backed my opinion by buying stocks.  An advance followed, as I had clearly foreseen.  So far, all very well.  But what else did I do?  Why, I listened to the elder statesmen and curbed my youthful impetuousness.  I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively.  Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions.  And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do; for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came.  And I saw my stock go kiting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket.  They say you never grow poor taking profits.  No you don’t.  But neither do you grow rich taking a four point profit in a bull market.”


“Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, “You know, it’s a bull market!”  

“Time and again I heard him say, “Well this is a bull market, you know!” as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million dollar accident insurance policy.  And of course I did not get his meaning.”

Old Turkey:  “I said I’d lose my position.  And when you are as old as I am and you’ve been through as many booms and panics as I have, you’ll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller.

Old Turkey:  “I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years.  I paid a high price for it and I don’t feel like throwing away a second tuition fee.  But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank.  It’s a bull market, you know.”


“What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market.  The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was.  He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weakness.  He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.”


“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me.  It always was my sitting.  Got that?  My sitting tight!  It is no trick at all to be right on the market.”

“Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.  I found it one of the hardest things to learn.”

“The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do.”

“Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did.  He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.”



July 07 2021


Added to soybean oil today

Minnesota spring wheat 

Canola

Long term portfolios added to the industrials and metals and mining




July 08 2021

That was one of the lowest intraday tick readings in years this morning. Most of the time that signals a selling climax.

Usually the downside is capped 1-2% at most after that.

At the same time there is a lot of risk out there at the moment. Stay cautious


Short term I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a bounce. Softs and ags are actually holding up well


Also I would continue to stay interested in dips in the energy market until the trend and the curve say to stop buying


July 09 2021

Interesting rule list from Morgan Housel


  • What money can and can’t do for you isn’t intuitive, so most people are surprised at how they feel when they suddenly have more or less than before.

  • Money makes it easy to mistake optimism (good) with gullibility (dangerous) and overconfidence (disastrous).

  • Getting rich and staying rich are different things that require different skills.

  • The formula for how to do well with money is simple. The behaviors you battle while implementing that formula are hard.

  • “Save more money and be more patient” is too simple for most people to take seriously, but it’s the best solution to most financial problems.

  • Expectations move slower than reality on the ground, so it’s easy to become frustrated when clinging to the economic trends of a previous era.

  • Everything is relative. John D. Rockefeller was asked how much money was enough and said, “Just a little bit more.” Everyone, at every income, tends to feel the same.

  • Spending money to show people how much money you have is the fastest way to have less money.

  • Debt removes options, savings add them.

  • No one is impressed with your possessions as much as you are.




July 10 2021


July 12 2021

July 10 2021.docx
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July 13 2021


July 14 2021

US cattle numbers are starting to fall as weights also are doing the same as prices have not

compensated the producer for high feed prices. Improved throughput is starting to show up at a time

of ongoing strong domestic demand.

We are bullish cattle prices and see deferred prices looking much higher.


The short term will be choppy as we get in to August but I believe we will see a run starting around that time. If corn prices back off I am extrememly bullish.



July 15 2021



Kashyap absolutely nailed this one




Tom Basso interview is up


July 19 2021

The video is on the precarious market. Basic message of the video is “patience




Basic signal of 4 days down in most sectors and the SPX right now.


This is looking like a possible Tuesday bounce could happen.


Does it change me thoughts on staying on the sidelines… no


The markets in a bad spot but a bounce is possible.


And another one.




IWM small caps. Sentiment wash out signal. We are sustaining over the MA's with a major sentiment washout. Very rare signal and usually ends up with a move higher. Still I will wait for the break out.


Mixed signals all around. The video explains it best. Patience.


July 20 2021

Similar to my sentiment signals. All of my other signals are saying that, that was it.


I was looking for a turn around tuesday this weekend which we have.


I still think the probabilities are skewed to the upside as well


I am working on a a short video now.


July 21 2021

Video got delayed because I wanted breadth thrust data and stock charts are an EOD data on those so expect it tomorrow. I’ll also explain what I’m doing… (I’ll give you a hint, it’s the same shit I’m always saying. I’m taking signals…) see you tomorrow.


Oil today



July 22 2021

Coffee today







July 23 2021

Coffee has been an absolute animal. It is now sustaining a 5 year high.



This is why I always talk about trading many different markets as well as different products. If you have all your eggs in one basket “you will live and die with that market”


If something like Bitcoin falls and your entire portfolio crashes. You have done something incredibly wrong with your portfolio construction.


Trading accords asset classes will create a smooth portfolio. Your portfolio should not correlate to any market. When you are doing that right, you are on the road to great returns.



Something that’s important to do every weekend is look at the weekly charts


For example oil felt scary at certain times during the week


Check out how the weekly candle did.



Up  on the week with a major wick on the end of the candle.


This tells me that we most likely won’t hit that low again for awhile. Also next week the probabilities are to the upside.


July 24 2021

"If there was a final flush in Bitcoin and it closes above 30k today." (22nd June 2021) - So far so good. Add over 40 MA.


July 25 2021

Bitcoin is very close to going to a full buy signal again.



July 26 2021



Coffee…




3) Seeking smooth returns 

Investment frauds are often not about stratospheric returns, but instead something that might be even more desirable – smooth performance. The attraction of funds that move on an unperturbed path upwards is entirely understandable – drawdowns and volatility are painful and bring about poor behaviours – but it is an entirely unrealistic expectation. If we are to invest with even a modicum of risk then we will witness variability in returns. Fund investors need to accept this rather than find ways to avoid it. That doesn’t mean we cannot make the journey smoother by implementing sensible investment principles such as diversification, but volatility is inevitable and indeed it is a reason why long-term equity returns are so high. 

Even away from frauds we can easily be tempted into funds that provide apparent diversification and smooth returns, simply because they are priced on a different basis to more liquid assets. The idea that certain private equity strategies, for example, are diversifying and lowly correlated to public equities because their assets are marked to model is nonsense. This type of situation is worsened by employing mean variance portfolio optimisation approaches that compare volatilities across asset classes with different pricing methodologies.


We should never let the attraction of smooth performance leave us blind to what assets a fund is actually investing in.“


"10) Having time horizons that are far too short

“If there was one thing that could be done to improve the decision making of fund investors it would be to extend our time horizons. The shorter our timescale the more we are captured by chance; consistently making judgements based on random and unpredictable market movements.


The irony is that as we try to become more sophisticated and diligent investors our time horizons inevitably contract making us worse investors. We check our funds too frequently, make confident inferences based on little but noise and overtrade. Unfortunately, it never feels or looks like this at the time. We have so much ‘information’ available to us that every choice appears reasonable and well-informed in the moment. Each switch from an underperformer to an outperformer feels good whilst we are doing it. It is only when we reflect that we are likely to observe the long-term costs.


This is an issue that is getting worse.  Our time horizons are becoming ever shorter. More observation points, more near-term scrutiny, and more unnecessary activity. What is good for preserving our careers or getting us through that next difficult meeting is probably to the detriment of our long-term returns.”


July 27 2021

Last night I made a video on building a system


However I turned my video off and I am not sure why it is on there so you have to see my bulls jersey lol




July 29 2021

Few alerts this morning



$X Reports Q2 $3.37 v $3.16e, Rev $5.03B v $4.70Be (United States Steel Corp)

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