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Monthly Digest | January 2021

Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in January 2021. Let's explore the pages of January 2021's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.


January 01 2021


Puru is a growth investor who also uses a trend system to hedge. I’ve always enjoyed what this guy does. Over 5 years he has put together an average around 100%


January 02 2021

Bitcoin is very close to its primary target of 36k which is where the breakout from the 20k zone would target based on TA. Once again trailing stop. Enjoy the ride.


January 03 2021



BTC system 1... yes still long


BTC system 1... yes still long


BTC weekly


BTC something we talk about here a lot... YOU HAVE NO PREDICTIVE ABILITY so stop trying to pick tops and bottoms as a position/swing trader


Lumber- no one ever says... I need more lumber even though it outperformed BTC this year. Not sexy enough lol


Close to my stop on lumber. I rolled in to the march contract.


Copper still in bullish trend. Also band squeeze that looks like its ready to move higher.


oil still long, holding on to a bullish trend


The curve gives warnings similar to copper, oil and lumber






XBI/Dow healthy risk on


 KRE still outperforming healthy risk on market






some of our miner picks from the begining of this month




Silver the move looks early, not late



Silver juniors the strongers one in the pack


Ended last week on a green gold bar. bullish


silver to gold ratio bullish


better picture


HOLDING GOLD for the first 10 days of January has a 74.6% accuracy over 20 years so look for bullish set ups in gold, silver and miners


































January 04 2021


Something to keep in mind about crypto. The flood in to eth should continue as they roll out eth futures.



Gold holding above the old highs



OIH with another buy signal


January 05 2021

Can we just leave it at this. EVERYTHING BESIDES COMMODITIES ARE IN A BUBBLE


That’s a trend - Corn


2020 Migration Trends UHaul Ranks 50 States By Migration Growth - Uhaul is still on my long term hold list


Wheat new highs.


Soybeans


Uranium energy and EEM on top




OMG things will be impacted... no shit. This guy has been saying this for 6 months now. I don’t have a problem with John at all but this is an example of what I’m talking about. Miss an entire rally in commodities because... something might happen. No one knows when


Everyday “be careful”. Be careful trading against the trend


All trends stop. Anything can happen. But we try to catch the meat of these moves. So as a trend trader we want to stay bullish until there is no reason to be bullish. Once again we are happy to give back 10-20% after 50-300% moves.


January 06 2021

FED'S EVANS SAYS HE WOULD WELCOME ABOVE 2% INFLATION

*EVANS SAYS VERY DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE OUT OF CONTROL INFLATION - These fucking guys lol


I have had a terrible time calling natty the last couple months. After nailing a major move its given me a ton of fake outs. But this looks like a solid set up. 3 pushes to a low. OBV and williams divergence. On the next pull back to higher low it is most likely a buy.


Similar to when we saw a premium in gold we are seeing a similar set up in lumber right now. This usually leads to more upside


Commodities. They trend - Corn


Media “if it’s a blue wave buy tech” 😱 they are always on point. 10 for 10!


Russell. It was priced in... they said. Ok my saltiness level is at an all time high. I’m going to stop hating lol


It’s nice to not be involved in the news anymore... price actions still bullish... crazy



January 07 2021

The non-aggression principle (also called the non-aggression axiom, or the anti-coercion or zero aggression principle or non-initiation of force) is an ethical stance which asserts that "aggression" is inherently illegitimate. "Aggression" is defined as the "initiation" of physical force against persons or property, the threat of such, or fraud upon persons or their property. In contrast to pacifism, the non-aggression principle does not preclude violent self-defense. The principle is a deontological (or rule-based) ethical stance.


January 08 2021

Major hit to the metals this morning due to rising yields and falling bond prices on the long end. Inflation rates need to outperform yields. Which will happen.


Shaky but healthy


Market still in superior return mode according to the T model


Nasty sell off in the metals today as real yields are putting pressure on the gold price.


This has been interesting when it comes to natural gas prices. Asia is surging on cold winter and a supply crunch. This can roll over here as well


Cool bit of news today - John Netto and I are going to speak exclusively for this group at some point coming up.


Silver and gold should move up now. Leveraged selling is over.


Update on the silver trade - Look at that bounce off of that high volume support bar


Interesting reaction off of the 200 day/40 week MA. I refer to the 200 day retracements as algo city for a reason


BTC update


More new highs today. Breadth is insane


January 09 2021


Advance decline volume stock only


Equal weight SPX on bottom. SPX on top. Equal weight still stronger than SPX. Bullish


Broad AD


since the lows


PMO buy all gave a buy signal this week.


Summation


bull bear indicator


oil volatility


Junk bonds to gov 20-30s


oil leading indicator Still very bullish


inflation/deflation...


The oil break out we were looking for happened. Note the volume bar



what’s the pain trade?


one warning


Biotech





yes bitcoin is still a long but this is parabolic





risk off


risk off


risk on



copper to gold yields in green





January 10 2021


January 11 2021

Bitcoin bought up like crazy at the 10 EMA


"My wife is great, no complaints, Im gonna divorce her and marry a bitch"



Curious to see what BTC does 830-9


In my opinion this is where we should see buying coming back in to BTC. Watch these levels. It would not surprise me to see it move straight up here or move straight to 20k. What I would watch for here is a higher low type of situation on short term time frame


Similar to this. I think there are a lot of people waiting for lower prices. So we could see a major move lower to a value zone


By value zone I am just talking about the obvious. Everyone can see that there is support at the break out around 20k. More below


I would stay bullish if we can close back in that parabolic trend


Dollar is seeing some rejection


Closed back in parabolia. Barely


January 12 2021


We want to see this large range down day hold


January 13 2021

Yields look ready for a hard bounce. This could add some upside to the metals


Yields look for a ready hard bounce. - Counter trend bounce. Meaning to the downside.


I’m looking for the market to start move towards an operation twist. Rather than looking for the fed to say it. I want to see the short end move towards the long end. I don’t think this is happening yet but it’s an opportunity


Right now I’m in a curve steeper trade. Flattening would be the opposite trade.


Risk off environment today. As the curve flattens the banks and small caps are effected


January 14 2021

Banks beautiful bank stocks. Why is this sector the one I go to over and over again when I explian why the market is bullish or bearish.


Look at KRE. Before the major correction in 2018 and the crash of 2020 we see divergence on the KRE


The SPX went on to make new highs each time but the banks did not


We went bullish on the banks in October because of the realtive strength, the yield curve and the banks made a higher low and the dow jones did not.


Think of the spread between the 2 and 10 as the banks on the short end (2's and 3 month) and the lend from the long end plus a premium (10 and 30 year bonds)




Better Illustration


Gold seasonailty week to week





January 15 2021

Options expiration day and ex week into next week. Out T theory map has run its course


Seasonals point to some turbulence here as well


Check the date - Jan 18


BTC possible lower high. Careful here.


January 16 2021




January 18 2021

4 similar to silver to gold ratio. We can look at ETH to BTC


weekly


T model



FAANGs slowing down


Slightly positive this week. However there are some warnings as we talked about on friday.


EURUSD













corn or bitcoin? lol. All grains are in contango. This hasn’t happened since 2012!




lumber very close to slipping in to a bearish trend.








Overall thoughts on this week. Bitcoin still bullish but barely holding on to bullish trend. If we break down or up I would follow that direction.


Gold: Last week needs to be the end of the sell off to keep that sector in bullish trend.


Broad market looks strong but sentiment is insane. It is not a bad idea to look at hedging with some of the fangs which are now the weakest sector. Price action is still bullish


one more







January 19 2021

Something to keep an eye on today


4 similar to silver to gold ratio. We can look at ETH to BTC. - We have talked about this many times. Relative strength can tell us what asset we want to trade.


Dollar weekly candles




January 20 2021

Larry Williams the best trader ever


Have I ever said that there is no such thing as a triple top? The test is here


While everyone is paying attention to the new emperor or the leaving emperor. Aka our most gracious sovereigns 🤮


We are seeing the market is at new highs. This has never happened during an inauguration


Useless data but interesting


Building


Cocoa, with a grade A set up. Id keep an eye on this one.


January 21 2021

I always say that I dislike triangles. This is why lol


No new low. But a break down. Not exactly actionable


This is my number one rule. You see this with great traders over and over again. Druckenmiller went from 125% long to short on the day of the 1987 crash


Never marry any idea. You have to be confident in your abilities as a trader. But not confident in ANY position you put on.





January 22 2021