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Monthly Digest | August 2021

Analyzing the key trends, events, and factors that drove market behavior in August 2021. Let's explore the pages of August 2021's trading chronicle together, unlocking the secrets that unfolded in the realm of stocks and investments.

August 02 2021

While everyone is freaking out about an outside day… I’ll tell you what usually happens.

So let’s start with identifying what that means

So here is today’s outside day down close.

This is known as a bearish pattern.

So I took a class on trading from Larry Williams. Well worth it and he’s the best of the best

Williams won the 1987 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading from the Robbins Trading Company, where he turned $10,000 to over $1,100,000 (11,300%) in a 12-month competition with real money.

Learning from Larry was eye opening. Learning how trading is very different from what you learn and are told. Larry backtested A LOT. As I do because of him.

Larry found that outside day down closes can be bullish, you have to wait for the next day and see. As soon as you break over the high… it’s a high win rate strategy.

I’ve mentioned this before. Buyers don’t move a market up. It’s the exhaustion of sellers.

So basically you see these nasty closes at times. Ok…. Now that we talked about the grammar and the logic. Now let’s talk about how to trade it.

So my favorite set up for these are these ones.

A down Friday usually leads to a down Monday.

These usually lead to a turnaround Tuesday scenario. If Tuesday is not a strong move up or a doji I’d stay away

August 08 2021

August 10 2021

A lot of new bottoming 3 bar buy signals

Platinum, Canadian dollar, And so on...

Sugar is raging (surprise surprise 🙄)

30 year bond just lost its short term trend. I still believe that was a top and it should challenge the old lows. Fundamentally it makes sense. Technically we had 3 pushes to a high with divergence. The shorter term bonds rolled over and banks have broken out to new highs.

Get the bond market right and we will get everything else right so let’s keep an eye on that.

If this is the case. Copper which had been consolidating but hasn’t broke trend should move higher soon. This would confirm the bond story.

August 11 2021

Easy trade recommendation

Bull put spread on SOXX or SMH. Semi conductors have been down for 4 days in a bullish trend. Probably one of the easiest high probability trade set ups

260 dollar strike

August 14 2021

What do we do with this ⬇️

August 15 2021

I made an audio note for this that didn’t upload lol I’ll make another one

I will be making a newsletter soon (out tomorrow or the next day) centered around the advantages I have trading my own account compared to the fund accounts.

One client that is also a close friend has the only account that I trade like mine. He understands volatility and is extremely business minded which is why he’s along for the ride. I thought this would be a fun way to do this. Kashyap also has some ideas as well so expect this in the next couple days

August 16 2021

This was going to be in my report tomorrow but the signal came tonight

ZS Jan 2022 soybeans buy

August 18 2021

_Against all Odds_August 15 21.docx (1)
Download PDF • 5.87MB

XLE 4 days down signal. Right at support and by the 200 day MA.

August 19 2021

Ha! You always have to ask yourself are you right or are you making money.

August 20 2021

All commodity currencies hit the bottom of their implied moves and bounced


Something we go over on here a lot is weekly flows.

The week after an expiration week can be bearish for stocks

But most of the time when the market struggles in to the expiration week it bottoms.

August 21 2021

August 22 2021

I shared this with a client this morning

The power of compounding is incredibly important

As you know my target yearly return for futures is 100% (you can only go to 99 on this). This is why

Here’s 40% on 1M

August 23 2021

Butinh NKD (Japan dollar denominated NIKKEI)

August 24 2021

August 25 2021

On the fed ⬇️

August 26 2021

Main point. They will threaten and then say they can’t raise rates or tighten because of delta, economy, trump, Biden, Jesus, Waffle House, transitory inflation… whatever

August 27 2021

From KNX Q2 earnings presentation

August 29 2021

August 30 2021

Time to buy Carbon

Risking to the bottom of the ascending triangle on a break out is a solid risk to reward set up as we move in to this “new world”

August 31 2021

China is putting in a major reversal this week. Bottoming is a process and not an event so we need to give it some time. But the buy signal is here. Short interest is incredibly high and the seasonals look good as well.

This reminds me of our ongoing India trade a few months ago when “the virus was going to kill everyone” and that was the bottom.

The risk here is low and the reward is high.

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